3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 5/14/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Clint Frazier to Hit a Home Run (+480)
Clint Frazier's home run prop really jumps out to me tonight. We project him for 0.26 dingers, which is actually the most on the New York Yankees, but he's priced as the seventh-most likely Bronx Bomber to go deep.
The Yanks are at homer-happy Camden Yards to take on righty Dean Kremer. In his brief MLB career (44 2/3 innings), Kremer has been solid, but he has allowed a 44.2% fly-ball rate.
Frazier, meanwhile, owns a 40.6% fly-ball rate this season, and his overall numbers (.264 wOBA) are being killed by a lowly .164 BABIP and 11.6 homer-to-fly-ball rate that is well below his career average (16.2%).
At +480, Frazier to go yard is a worthwhile bet. And you can get a +550 number on Frazier to homer in a Yankees win.
Randy Arozarena to Hit a Home Run (+410)
Randy Arozarena is going up against lefty David Peterson.
While Peterson has been pretty good so far in 2021 (3.48 SIERA), he has surrendered 1.73 homers per nine, and a year ago, he pitched to a much worse 5.26 SIERA. In short, time will tell how legit his hot start to this season really is.
Arozarena has mauled southpaws in his short career, launching six jacks in 81 plate appearances in the split. He's got a .364 wOBA against lefties this season. He's also hit all four of his 2021 taters at home, where he'll be today.
I like the +410 number we're getting on Arozarena to pop a homer.
Drew Smyly Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-126)
Drew Smyly will see the poor offense of the Milwaukee Brewers. For the year, Milwaukee sits 26th in wOBA (.291) with the 4th-highest strikeout rate (27.1%). Over the past seven days, their wOBA is at .261. They're not good.
Smyly holds a mere 19.6% strikeout rate this year across 25 innings, but his 10.5% swinging-strike rate tells us he's due for a little positive regression in the strikeout department. If you remove his first start of the season, Smyly has an 11.5% swinging-strike rate. Plus, since the start of 2020, he's got a 28.7% strikeout rate and 12.8% swinging-strike rate.
The lefty has thrown at least 91 pitches in three of his four starts, and as long as he's on his game today, he should be able to work deep against a Brew Crew lineup that is unlikely to knock him around and force an early exit.
I like his chances of amassing six-plus punchouts versus the Brewers.
