MLB Betting Guide: Friday 5/7/21
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For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 9.0 (-104): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Harvey has shown some slight improvement early on in 2021, but his SIERA is still just 4.67. In 102 1/3 innings since the start of 2019, he owns a 5.38 SIERA and 15.3% strikeout rate. Facing a Boston Red Sox offense that leads baseball in wOBA (.337), Harvey should have a rough evening ahead of him.
Rodriguez has the easier matchup, but the Baltimore Orioles are right at the league average in wOBA versus lefties (.319), so Baltimore won't be a pushover. After missing all of 2020, E-Rod has dazzled so far this campaign, spinning a 2.97 SIERA with a 27.9% strikeout rate and 2.7% walk rate. However, Boston has been understandably cautious with Rodriguez, allowing him to throw more than 79 pitches in only two of his five outings. We should see a decent amount of the Boston's bullpen.
Our projections have Boston winning 5.32-5.18. That's a total of 10.50 runs, and we think the over hits 56.3% of the time.
Over 8.5 (-102): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The good pitcher is Carlos Rodon, who has been excellent in 2021. Through 25 frames, he's permitting just two earned runs while fanning 36. He's got a 2.81 SIERA. But if we're looking for reasons for optimism for KC, the Royals have some guys who are good against southpaws -- namely Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier. As a team, Kansas City has the sixth-best hard-hit rate (32.7%) in the split.
Brad Keller is getting the ball for the Royals, and he's struggled to a 5.38 SIERA this season. His walk rate (10.2%) isn't too far from his strikeout rate (13.6%). It's not just small-sample noise, either, as the righty holds a 5.02 SIERA since the start of 2020.
Something else that can help us get to the over here is these bullpens, both of which rank in the bottom 11 in reliever ERA.
We project the final score to be 5.22-4.67 in favor of Chicago. That's 9.89 runs, and we have the over hitting at a clip of 61.7%.