5 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Wednesday 5/5/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's slate.
Freddy Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers ($9,000)
Between Shane Bieber, Yu Darvish, and Walker Buehler all taking the hill, and only a few offenses hovering around five implied runs, this is arguably one of those slates where there isn't much incentive to talk yourself into a value pitcher, as there's a very good chance one of these guys end up with the top score on the night.
The one hurler who might be the exception is Freddy Peralta, who's flashed enough firepower to crack 45-plus FanDuel points in three of five starts, including a season-high 55-point effort. That's because he's put up a head-turning 40.2% strikeout rate that surpasses even Bieber on the slate. However, it's also come with a 12.5% walk rate, which is what makes Peralta a more boom-or-bust option than the aforementioned trio.
Alex Verdugo, OF, Boston Red Sox ($3,100)
The Boston Red Sox have one of the top implied totals on the board again (5.04), and they could have another big night at the plate against the Detroit Tigers. Right-hander Casey Mize is enduring another tough campaign, and he's getting rocked by left-handed batters, posting a 5.16 xFIP, 17.3% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate in the split.
Alex Verdugo may not be Mookie Betts, but he's proving to be a consistent contributor high in Boston's order, and it starts with his fantastic plate skills, as he owns a 12.9% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate. He may not be as powerful as other bats in the lineup, but a .398 xwOBA shows how well he's performed to this point, and he should be able to take advantage of this matchup.
If you're making multiple Red Sox stacks and/or need more value, don't forget about the bottom of the order, too, where we find several batters with salaries below $2,500.
Mitch Garver, C, Minnesota Twins ($2,700)
Another team with a high implied total is Minnesota, who's up against left-hander Hyeon-jong Yang. We've only seen 8.2 innings from Yang, but he's only managed five punchouts (15.2%), and he wasn't much of a strikeout pitcher in the KBO, hovering around a 20% strikeout rate across 14 seasons.
There's some solid power in this Twins lineup, and that includes Mitch Garver, who can surely benefit from facing a low-strikeout pitcher. Garver is demonstrating some of that power we saw in 2019 with a 17.5% barrel rate, but it's come with a poor 40.3% strikeout rate, leading to inconsistent results. Even so, that power has led to some huge FanDuel scores here and there, and that's what we're hoping for against Yang tonight.
Sean Murphy, C, Oakland Athletics ($2,900)
Most of this lineup will have the platoon advantage, and Ray has managed just a 4.73 xFIP, 23.3% strikeout rate, and 12.3% walk rate against right-handed bats this season. That strikeout rate is far lower than what we usually see from Ray, and home runs have long been a problem, as he's allowed a career 1.45 dingers per nine innings to righties.
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Oakland Athletics ($3,000)
Fedde has more than doubled his strikeout rate to 25.8% this season, which is already curious, and neither a 7.1% swinging-strike rate nor 23.2% called-strike-plus-whiff rate suggests this is sustainable. And yet, since getting roughed up in his opening start -- against these same Braves -- Fedde has been steady over his last four, which includes shutting down a tough Blue Jays lineup in his last outing.
But whether or not we believe in these changes. Atlanta is just a flat out strong offense, so we can still consider stacking them on talent alone. Marcell Ozuna seems to be turning things around after slugging a pair of bombs last week, and this salary is just too low for the Braves' number-three hitter.