MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/4/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 9.0 (-102): 5-Star Rating out of 5
Whenever our algorithm hands out a five-star rating, we have to take notice.
Ross missed all of 2020 and has posted a 4.39 SIERA and 20.3% strikeout rate in his first 21 1/3 innings of this season for the Washington Nationals. Back in 2019, his last year with a decent-sized sample, he struggled to a 5.17 SIERA.
Ynoa can be electric and has been good so far in 2021, pitching to a 2.86 SIERA with a 32.1% strikeout rate. But in a similar-sized sample in 2020, he recorded a 5.38 SIERA and 17.0% strikeout rate.
Both of these offenses sit in the top 12 in wOBA, and both bullpens are in the bottom five in xFIP. Our model has the Atlanta Braves' offense -- which is third in wOBA against righties (.342) -- doing the heavy lifting today, pegging them to score 6.22 runs.
In all, our projections love the over in this game, forecasting a total of 11.46 runs to be scored. We have the over hitting 64.5% of the time.
Over 9.0 (-115): 4-Star Rating out of 5
This is another game where our model really likes the over.
Pivetta's 2.81 ERA isn't anywhere near his 5.23 SIERA. He's got a 16.3% walk rate in 25 2/3 frames, which is the main reason for the higher ERA estimators, but this is a guy who posted a 4.69 SIERA and 40.5% hard-hit rate across 2019 and 2020. He's not good.
Fulmer has mostly looked good in 2021, registering a 3.75 SIERA and 13.7% swinging-strike rate over his first 21 innings. But he owned a 5.58 SIERA in 27 2/3 innings in 2020.
While the Detroit Tigers' offense is among the worst in the league by most measurements, the offense of the Boston Red Sox ranks third in wOBA (.329) and should be the main driver to get this game over 9.0 total runs.
We project a 6.14-5.12 win for the Red Sox. That's 11.26 total runs, and we think the over hits 62.8% of the time.