3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 5/3/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+118)
Tyler Glasnow is an intriguing +118 to strike out eight or more Los Angeles Angels batters on Monday night.
April was an excellent month for Glasnow, as he went 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA. The big number was the strikeouts, though. In just 37 2/3 innings, Glasnow got batters to whiff a whopping 56 times.
This is nothing new for the ace, too, as 2018 and 2019 featured K/9 rates over 11. Last year, that rate topped 14, and in April, he was at 13.4. This early start sure doesn't look like a fluke. Glasnow also has struck out 10 or more batters in three of his last four starts.
He takes on the Angels on the road, and even though their strikeout rate is just 20.9% (league average is 24.3%), Glasnow is playing too well for that to scare us.
Our projections are quite bullish on Glasnow, as he tops 8.26 strikeouts in around six innings of work. Again, that plus number is something to attack even against a decent Angels team that features Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.
Nolan Arenado to Hit a Home Run (+330)
The St. Louis Cardinals are far from the biggest home-run hitting team in the Majors, but they do have a pretty good matchup against the New York Mets on Monday. New York comes in after an exhausting 11-inning affair against Philadelphia last night.
Nolan Arenado has not been his usual self in April, batting just .264. His slugging percentage is just .473 despite a career rate is up at .539. Some might argue it is the Coors Field effect, but so far, his numbers have been a little exaggerated even. He has hit one home run every 29.5 at-bats, but his career number is one every 17.7. That cannot be explained by Denver alone.
In spite of that, Arenado still blasted four home runs in April, and as the weather heats up, the balls should fly over the fence. Even playing in St. Louis cannot hurt, either, as the balls do carry in the warmer months.
Tonight's projection for Arenado is only 0.18 homers, but Joey Lucchesi is on the mound for New York. His fly-ball rate is 35% (around league average), and his hard-hit rate is 40% with an exit velocity of 88.4 mph.
On the other side, Pete Alonso is a possible alternative at +290, and he has the second-highest projections to hit a big fly at 0.31.
Adam Wainright Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)
Adam Wainwright may not have the stamina he used to, but the St. Louis pitcher can still fan some batters. His K/9 rate is just over 10 in the early going, and that might continue against a struggling New York Mets offense. This season, Wainwright has a career-high 26.5% strikeout rate (highest career rate in April, as well) across 28 2/3 innings.
The Mets are just not hitting the ball well, and Francisco Lindor, in particular, is struggling mightily at the plate, batting just .171 with one strikeout every 8.2 at-bats. In the National League, New York ranks bottom three in seven key batting metrics, including slugging percentage and hits to name a few.
Wainwright should get close to 90-plus pitches today as long as he's throwing well. The over is the way to ride here.
