MLB Betting Guide: Monday 5/3/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+155): 1 Star out of 5
The Brewers send Adrian Houser to the mound which should give them the pitching advantage in this matchup, as he has been off to a good start this season with a 3.65 ERA and 4.35 FIP. The Phillies start Vincent Velasquez who has struggled mightily this year with a 6.57 ERA and 7.07 FIP, as he is allowing 2.9 home runs per 9 innings.
Our model likes the Brewers to win this game and we give them a 52.56% chance to cover the 1.5 runline. The Brewers should win and they should have a good chance to win in blowout fashion, making the runline a tempting bet at +155.
Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+172): 1 Star out of 5
The Kansas City Royals are off to a surprising start to the season at 16-10 but they start a rookie pitcher in Daniel Lynch who will be making his MLB debut on Monday night. Lynch is the 25th-ranked prospect in MLB, according to Baseball America, but he had a horrendous Spring Training with 7.71 ERA in 11.2 innings pitched.
While Lynch is a complete unknown at the major league level, Cleveland Indians starter Aaron Civale is off to a tremendous start this season. Civale has a 2.94 ERA and 3.98 FIP in his first 5 starts this season and he has a 130 ERA+ in his career, well above the league average of 100.
Our model gives Cleveland a 54.41% chance to cover the 1.5 runline, as they should have a good chance to win this game by multiple runs.
Oakland As moneyline -136: 2 Stars out of 5
The Oakland Athletics started the year 1-7 but have gone 16-5 since then to improve their record to 17-12, which is good enough for first place in the AL West. The Toronto Blue Jays are 14-12 this season and are coming off a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves, so they have been playing well of late also.
The Blue Jays start Steven Matz who had a horrendous year last season (9.68 ERA/7.76 FIP in 30.2 innings) but this season he has been much improved with a 4.00 ERA and 3.76 FIP. Matz began the year with 18.1 innings and only 3 ER in his first 3 starts but has since gone 8.2 innings with 9 earned runs allowed in his 2 most recent starts.
The As start Frankie Montas, who has a 6.20 ERA and 5.20 FIP this season but he has been much more reliable throughout most of his career, with a career ERA of 4.38 and a 4.19 FIP.
Our model gives the As a 56.74% chance to win outright and we like the As moneyline as a 2-star bet.