3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 4/30/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Clint Frazier to Hit a Home Run (+460)
The New York Yankees are at home versus lefty Tarik Skubal, and our projections have Skubal allowing a slate-high 1.22 taters tonight. So the Bronx Bombers are a great place to look for homer props, and we'll want to focus on right-handed hitters as Skubal has allowed a 61.9% fly-ball rate and .388 wOBA in the split in his brief career.
That leads me to Clint Frazier.
Frazier has started slowly this season, like most of the Yanks' sticks, but he tagged southpaws for a .379 wOBA, hitting two jacks in just 38 plate appearances. In a slightly bigger sample in 2019, Frazier popped four homers in 61 plate appearances in the split.
While the prices on Gleyber Torres (+360) and DJ LeMahieu (+380) to go deep also catch my eye, Frazier's +460 number really stands out.
Marcus Stroman Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-168)
Marcus Stroman has been fairly lackluster so far in his return from injury.
In 24 1/3 frames, the right-handers has put up a mere 16.0% strikeout rate and has only 15 punchouts. He also hasn't thrown more than 90 pitches in a game yet in 2021, so he will need to rack up whiffs quickly if he's going to get to the over on this line.
Our model projects Stroman for only 4.32 strikeouts today versus the Philadelphia Phillies, so while the -168 price on the under isn't super appealing, that's the side to be on.
Enrique Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+390)
Kohei Arihara's debut campaign isn't going very well.
Across his initial 22 1/3 innings, Arihara has a 5.11 SIERA while surrendering a 44.3% hard-hit rate. We have to be careful not to put too much weight into a super small sample, but righties have been particularly troublesome for Arihara, getting to him for a .381 wOBA and 48.7% hard-hit rate.
The Boston Red Sox should do some damage tonight, and our algorithm likes Enrique Hernandez's chances to go yard.
Hernandez has been making pretty solid contact this campaign, posting a 7.8% barrel rate that would be a career-best clip. Hitting atop the order, he will likely get plenty of plate appearances, and once Arihara is out of the game, Hernandez will see a Texas bullpen that is giving up the sixth-most homers per nine innings (1.53).
We have Hernandez's homer projection at 0.35, which is the fifth-best of the night and puts him up alongside top-shelf bombers like Ronald Acuna and Mike Trout.
