3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 4/23/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Aaron Hicks to Hit a Home Run (+700)
Logan Allen is still in the infancy of his MLB career, but early on, he's having a heck of a time with right-handed bats. In the split, Allen has permitted a .371 wOBA across 176 total batters faced. Righties are striking out just 14.8% of the time, and they sport a 43.2% hard-hit rate.
Allen will be up against the New York Yankees, and they have a lot of potent hitters who will swing from the right side. Hicks, a switch-hitter, is one such guy. He put up a .350 wOBA and 42.1% fly-ball rate as a right-handed hitter in 2020. His lone tater this year came against a southpaw.
While Hicks is a long shot to go deep, he is decent dart throw who could pay off in a big way.
Michael Brosseau to Hit a Home Run (+460)
In his career, Brosseau owns a .382 wOBA versus southpaws while posting a 40.6% hard-hit rate and 44.8% fly-ball rate in the split. In 2020's small sample, Brosseau racked up a .455 wOBA against lefties while hitting four homers in 47 plate appearances.
Matz is off to a good start in 2020, posting a 3.71 SIERA, but time will tell how legit that is. Our model projects Matz to give up a slate-high 1.15 dingers tonight, so targeting a homer prop on a Tampa Bay Rays player is a good idea.
Jacob deGrom Under 10.5 Strikeouts (-134)
It says a lot about Jacob deGrom that the line on his strikeouts prop is 10.5. Dude is a monster, and he could make me look real foolish for plugging the under.
But 10.5 is so high, and our model sees a ton of value here, projecting deGrom for only 8.3 strikeouts.
deGrom has a comical 35 strikeouts in just 20 innings so far this year, but the matchup is a tough one. In the early part of the campaign, the Washington Nationals have been tough to strike out as their 22.2% strikeout rate is tied for the third-lowest clip. And deGrom has racked up 11-plus strikeouts in just five of his past 15 starts, dating back to the beginning of the 2020 season.
It feels scary, but a lot of signs point to the under being the right play.