MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 4/22/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 9.5 (+100): 3-Star Rating out of 5
The pitching matchup is a big reason why as it's Justin Dunn versus Nick Pivetta. Dunn has struggled to a 6.46 SIERA over 62 career innings, and his walk rate is a monstrous 18.5%. Sheesh. Pivetta, meanwhile, has lost most of the allure he had a few years back, pitching to a 4.79 SIERA while allowing a 39.6% hard-hit rate in 124 innings since the start of 2019.
While Seattle's offense is nothing to write home about, Boston's lineup is swinging it really well, leading the way in wOBA (.354).
We think both of these offenses will thrive tonight. Our model projects the Red Sox to win by a score of 5.97-5.42 -- a total of 11.39 runs. That's nearly two runs more than the listed total of 9.5. We forecast the over to hit 63.8% of the time and rate it as a three-star wager. It is the lone recommendation of more than two stars among tonight's games.
Over 7.5 (-118): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Betting on the over in games in which Walker Buehler is pitching usually isn't the way to go, but this total is just too low, according to our algorithm.
Siding with the over is more about Ryan Weathers than it is Buehler. Weathers is a 21-year-old who has thrown only 9 2/3 innings above A-ball -- all of which have come this season in The Show. He's made only one start in his MLB career, and it was an outing of 3 2/3 innings against these same Los Angeles Dodgers last week. In that one, Weathers fanned three and permitted only one hit. But while that start went well and Weathers' overall big-league numbers are solid, a matchup in LA against the best team in baseball is still a tall task.
Buehler is outstanding -- you know that. But we can poke a couple holes in his work from this year, although the obvious small-sample caveat applies. Through his initial 18 innings of 2021, Buehler's average fastball velocity is at a career-low mark (95.5 MPH), and his strikeout rate has plummeted to a career-low 17.1%. Will this iron itself out over time? Probably. But it's fair to say he's not at his best right now.
And we haven't even mentioned these two offenses, which are tied for first in walk rate (11.5%) and are two of the better lineups in the game.
Our projections have LA winning by a score of 4.79-4.10. That's 8.89 total runs, and we give the over a 61.1% chance to hit, assigning it two stars.