MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 4/21/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Over 8.5 (-120): 1 Star out of 5
This pitching matchup could lead to a potentially high-scoring game with Mike Foltynewicz of the Texas Rangers going against Jose Quintana of the Los Angeles Angels. Foltynewicz has been horrendous in 3 starts this season, posting an ERA+ of 77 and a FIP of 6.44. He has made 25 starts since the beginning of 2019 and has been allowing 2.0 home runs per 9 innings during that stretch and posting a 5.43 FIP during that time.
Quintana is also off to a slow start this season going only 5 innings over 2 starts and allowing 11 runs (9 earned). He has walked 7 batters as well and he appears to be a long way away from where he was during his all-star season in 2016.
Our model projects a 58.70% chance of the over, with a final score projection of 5.59-3.95 in favor of Los Angeles.
Chicago Cubs to win +112: 1 Star out of 5
The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs have both been struggling offensively to start this season and they are ranked 29th and 30th in runs per game in all of baseball so far. The Cubs are averaging 3.38 runs per game to the Mets' 2.92, so the Mets are deep in last place in this category and the Cubs should have a slight advantage here.
This pitching matchup features Zach Davies for the Cubs against David Peterson for the Mets. Both pitchers are struggling early this year, Peterson has a 6.30 ERA and Davies has a 10.32 ERA, both in limited appearances. However, last season, Davies finished 12 starts with a 2.73 ERA and 3.88 FIP, compared to a 3.44 ERA and 4.52 FIP for Peterson, so the Cubs may be enjoying an advantage in the starting pitching matchup too.
Our model likes the Cubs to win this game outright, giving them a 50.87% likelihood of winning. With the Cubs being plus money, we like the Chicago moneyline as a 1-star bet.
Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-178): 4 Stars out of 5
The New York Yankees are favored in this game but the Atlanta Braves seem to have the advantage both offensively and with the starting pitching matchup. Atlanta is averaging 4.82 runs per game this season, while the Yankees are toward the bottom of the league in runs per game at 3.63.
The Braves also start Ian Anderson who boasts a 2.83 ERA, 167 ERA+, and 3.17 FIP over the first 9 starts of his career. He is not experienced but he finished seventh in rookie of the year voting last season and appears to be part of the future of the Braves rotation.
The Yankees start Corey Kluber who has only made 11 starts since 2019, with a 5.74 ERA and 4.73 FIP. There is certainly upside and optimism that Kluber could improve based on his track record but in the short term he has certainly been struggling.
Our model loves the Braves odds to cover the 1.5 run spread, giving them a 76.18% chance to cover.