MLB Betting Guide: Monday 4/19/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+146): 1 Star out of 5
The St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals are both off to mediocre starts with the Cardinals at 7-8 and the Nationals at 5-8. The Cardinals have produced better than expected offensively so far this season, scoring 4.73 runs per game, compared to just 3.54 runs per game for the Nationals.
The Cardinals should also have the starting pitching advantage in this game, as Jack Flaherty takes the mound. Flaherty posted a 3.34 ERA in 2018 and a 2.75 ERA in 2019, good enough to finish fourth in the Cy Young voting that season. He has made 12 starts since 2020 with just a 4.69 ERA and 4.15 FIP but at only 25-years-old, you would expect him to regain his old form as this season progresses.
The Nationals start Joe Ross who is off to a fantastic start, allowing 0 runs in his first 11 innings of work. However, Ross posted ERAs above 5 from 2017-2019 and then did not pitch in the Majors in 2020, so the expectations for him this year should be fairly low.
Our model projects a 42.71% chance that the Cardinals win this game by more than 1 run, giving the Cardinals runline a 1.70% betting return.
San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+140): 1 Star out of 5
The San Francisco Giants are off to a good start this season at 9-6 and they send Kevin Gausman to the mound Monday night against Chase Anderson of the Philadelphia Phillies. Gausman has had a resurgence in his career the past two seasons, posting a 3.52 ERA and 3.16 FIP in 79.1 innings pitched.
The Giants certainly get the much better end of the pitching matchup as the Phillies will start Chase Anderson who has a 6.54 ERA 6.27 FIP in 42.2 innings pitched since the start of 2020.
Our model gives the Giants a 46.63% likelihood to cover the -1.5 runline, giving a projected return of 11.90% and making this a 1-star betting opportunity.
San Diego Padres -1.5 (+150): 1 Star out of 5
This game provides an exciting pitching matchup as Brandon Woodruff of the Milwaukee Brewers matches up with Joe Musgrove of the San Diego Padres. Woodruff has proven himself to be a quality pitcher in recent years, posting 124 ERA+ in his major league career thus far. He is certainly a quality starting pitcher but far from unhittable.
Joe Musgrove is having an unbelievable season for the Padres through his first 3 starts. He has thrown a no-hitter and has only allowed 1 run in 19 innings so far this season. Musgrove had a career ERA+ of 94 before the 2020 season but he posted a 117 ERA+ in 2020 and then a ridiculous 787 ERA+ in the early stages of this season.
The Padres also project to be a better offensive team than the Brewers with FanGraphs giving them a 4.88 runs scored projection compared to 4.58 for the Brewers. Our model gives the Padres a 41.62% chance to win by more than 1 run, giving the runline a 4% projected return.