3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on 4/14/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Corey Kluber Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+142)
You should consider the over on Ross Stripling's strikeouts prop of 4.5 only because he already struck out the New York Yankees five times in just 3.1 innings pitched. However, let's look at that strikeout prop once again for Corey Kluber because the plus money is even higher than his last start when it was at +124.
The problem with April is that there is so much randomness. Kluber was all over the place pitch-wise during his first start of the year. Despite that, he managed five strikeouts in four innings pitched.
Kluber's has endured two rather abysmal starts and that 2.1-inning effort (62 pitches) against the Tampa Bay Rays would scare off most bettors. However, the number here is something that carries too much value to pass up. Anything over +140 is very juicy -- even in April.
The projections are bearish on Kluber -- forecasting him for 5.11 strikeouts -- but, again, that value of +142 is like chasing the whale. That is our shot along with Stripling at +112.
Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+230)
This will likely be a swing and a miss, but the Yankees slugger has just two home runs in 40 at-bats. Normally, his rate is one per 12.83 at-bats. The going theory is that this number is higher in April but actually it is not. That number for Aaron Judge is one every 11.88 at-bats.
Yes, his strikeouts are down to less than one a game, and his plate discipline has been a bit better, but Ross Stripling is the pitcher he faces today. Stripling has not pitched a ton of innings in his career but was hit hard in his first start this season (51.9%). Some will argue that is an outlier, but there is a reason why the Toronto Blue Jays pitcher does not get more starts. Teams batted .281 against him last year and that trend may continue in 2021.
Judge is projected to hit 0.32 home runs today, which is one of the higher rates on the afternoon slate.
Our pick is to take a swing at +220 on the right-fielder.
Nolan Arenado to hit a home run (+550)
The number here is just too ridiculous. Damn the projections and damn everything. Nolan Arenado has three home runs already on the young season.
The St. Louis Cardinals go up against the 2-6 Washington Nationals this afternoon at home. Could Arenado hit over .300 again? Is it too early? Maybe. However, he is currently hitting .326 and does seem more in rhythm like 2019.
His home-run rate is one every 14.33 at-bats. During 2019, that number was one every 14.34 at-bats.
Our model has Arenado at 0.26 home runs, which is lower than Judge's 0.32. However, that +550 number may not be seen for very long. It is a great value today.
Chris Wassel is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Chris Wassel also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username chriswassel. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.