MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Friday 4/9/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 8.0 (-114): 3-Star Rating out of 5

Our model doesn't see too much betting value on today's slate. We rate only two bets as three-star wagers, and this is one of them.

While a game with Walker Buehler starting doesn't scream over, that's where our algorithm sees value in this clash between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Joe Ross is getting the ball for the Nats, and the Dodgers' bats can do a lot of the heavy lifting toward getting us to a total of nine-plus runs. In 80 innings since the start of 2019, Ross owns a 5.22 SIERA and 17.6% strikeout rate. He didn't pitch at all in 2020. The Dodgers' offense should feast, and we project them for 5.54 runs.

Buehler is a stud, but he does allow some hard contact, which can lead to dingers. In 36 2/3 innings a year ago, Buehler was tagged for seven homers (1.72 per nine). He permitted one tater in six innings in his 2021 debut, although that game was at Coors.

We project Washington to put up 4.09 runs, which means our projected total is 9.63 runs -- well over the line of 8.0. We forecast the over to hit 59.6% of the time.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

Over 8.0 (-110): 3-Star Rating out of 5

The other three-star bet today, according to our algorithm, is another over -- this one in the Philadelphia Phillies-Atlanta Braves contest. The pitching matchup pits Zack Wheeler against Charlie Morton. Both pitchers are pretty good, but they also have some warts.

Wheeler's numbers fell off quite a bit in 2020 as he posted an 18.4% strikeout rate, which was 5.2 percentage points lower than his 23.6% clip from 2019. Wheeler logged 71 frames last year, too, we're not talking about some super small sample. Morton has been really good for a while, recording a SIERA under 4.00 in every season since 2012. His 3.97 SIERA last year, however, was his worst since 2012.

We see the Braves winning this game 4.90-4.53. That's a total of 9.43 runs, and we have the over prevailing 57.8% of the time.