MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Monday 4/5/21

Tom Sokol Apr 5th, 2021
The Mets' opening series with the Nationals was canceled, so they will open up their season against the Phillies on Monday. Are they worth a bet?

Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at ouroddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.

Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers

Over 8.5 Runs (-120): 5 Stars out of 5

The pitching matchup for this game features Matt Shoemaker for the Minnesota Twins against Jose Urena for the Detroit Tigers and both offenses should be able to find their footing in this matchup.

Urena had a 5.40 ERA and 6.06 FIP in 5 starts last season and he was not much better in 84.2 innings pitched in 2019 when he finished with a 5.21 ERA and 4.74 FIP. Shoemaker was also mediocre at best last season finishing with a 4.71 ERA and 5.95 FIP in 6 starts.

We expect both offenses to be able to score in this one and our model projects a Twins victory by a final score of 5.31-4.53, giving us a total of 9.84 runs. This is 1.34 runs over the total, making this a strong five-star betting opportunity for Monday.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers

Over 9.5 (-102): 5 Stars out of 5

This game features a pitching matchup between two NL East outcasts in Steven Matz and Mike Foltynewicz.

Matz is coming off a very disappointing 2020 season where he finished with a 9.86 ERA and 7.76 FIP, so the Texas Rangers offense will certainly be expected to produce offensively in this game. On the other side, Foltynewicz had an All-Star season in 2018 but then fell off in 2019 and 2020 with a combined 4.86 ERA and 5.30 FIP during that time period.

Both starting pitchers in this game have had good careers but have fallen off in recent seasons. We project the Toronto Blue Jays to win by a final score of 5.49-4.84, putting us well over the game total and making this a five-star bet for Monday.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

NYM -1.5 (-126): 4 Stars out of 5

The New York Mets' first three games of the season were postponed due to a COVID outbreak with the Washington Nationals, which has led to a bit of a pitching mismatch in this game. Mets ace Jacob deGrom takes the mound against the Philadelphia Phillies' fourth starter Matt Moore, giving the Mets a major advantage in their season opener.

deGrom has been dominant throughout his career, and in the last three seasons in particular, he has been outstanding. deGrom has won 2 Cy Young awards during this time with a 2.10 ERA and 2.31 FIP, and he has led the league in strikeouts each of the last two seasons.

Meanwhile, Moore has only made two starts since 2019 and he struggled mightily in 2017 and 2018 when he pitched to a 5.99 ERA and 4.93 FIP in 276.1 innings. The Mets have a clear advantage in the pitching matchup and they are expected to be a strong team offensively this season, especially with the addition of superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. The Mets should win this game fairly easily.