MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Saturday 4/3/21

The beauty of daily fantasy baseball is that the top targets are different each and every day. Whether it's the right-handed catcher who destroys left-handed pitching or the mid-range hurler facing a depleted lineup, you're not going to find yourself using the same assets time after time.

While this breaks up the monotony, it can make it hard to decide which players are primed to succeed on a given day. We can help bridge that gap.

In addition to our custom optimal lineups, you can check out our batting and pitching heat maps, which show the pieces in the best spot to succeed on that slate. Put on the finishing touches with our games and lineups page to see who's hitting where and what the weather looks like, and you'll have yourself a snazzy-looking team to put up some big point totals.

If you need help getting started on that trek, here are some of the top options on the board today. We'll be focusing exclusively on the main slate, which locks at 7:10 p.m. EST.

Pitchers to Target

This pitching slate has a clear top four in my eyes. I think Corbin Burnes ($9,200 on FanDuel) is in his own tier. After him, Jose Berrios ($8,800), Joe Musgrove ($8,600) and Walker Buehler ($8,000) are all fine options in the next tier, and I won't deviate from these four in many -- if any -- lineups. For a five-game slate, the pitching options are pretty nice.

Starting with Burnes, I'm inclined to think his 2020 production was legit. He posted a 3.18 SIERA, 36.7% strikeout rate, 14.5% swinging-strike rate and 10.0% walk rate last year. He did make three appearances out of the bullpen, which may inflate those numbers a tad. But each of his last eight outings were starts, and in that span, he pitched to a 2.50 xFIP with 64 punchouts in 43 2/3 innings. A date with the Minnesota Twins isn't easy by any means, but Minnesota did sport the 12th-highest strikeout rate in 2020 (24.5%). We project Burnes for 36.0 FanDuel points, the second-most on the slate, and the Twins' 3.57 implied total is tied for the lowest on the slate.

Normally Buehler would be in the top tier with Burnes, but a game at Coors bumps him down a notch. We are getting him at a fairly nice salary, though, and FanGraphs' WAR projections have the Colorado Rockies with the second-fewest offensive WAR the rest of the way. As a word of warning, Clayton Kershaw and Trevor Bauer started at Coors the past two games, and Colorado totaled a combined 14 runs.

Musgrove and Berrios are similar for me. Both guys flash elite upside when they're on, but they're not on enough. They have solid matchups tonight, though.

Musgrove is taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco. The D-Backs were tied for the sixth-lowest wOBA a campaign ago (.306), although they held the fourth-lowest strikeout rate (20.6%). Our model ranks Musgrove as the slate's top play, projecting him for 36.7 points, and Arizona's 3.57 implied total is tied with the Twins' for the slate's lowest. Berrios gets the whiff-happy Milwaukee Brewers, who boasted the third-highest strikeout rate in 2020 (26.6%). Our algorithm isn't a big fan, pegging him to score just 28.5 FanDuel points, the fifth-most on the slate..

If you want a low-salary pick, Logan Webb ($6,400) checks a few boxes. Webb generated some good strikeout rates in the minors, including a 26.3% mark across 41 1/3 Double-A innings back in 2019. The strikeouts haven't happened yet for him in the bigs, but he's added a cutter and was superb in spring training, fanning 22 across 17 frames while surrendering a single earned run. The Seattle Mariners were 28th in wOBA last year (.298) and have an attackable 4.18 implied total. Webb's projection of 24.7 FanDuel points makes him the third-best point-per-dollar value at the position, per our numbers. Using Webb allows you to go big with your offense, which is very handy on a Coors slate.

Stacks to Target

Los Angeles Dodgers

For the third straight main slate, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the go-to stack. They're going to be an offense to target on a lot of slates, so when they're at Coors, they're impossible to ignore. They have a gaudy 7.07 implied total for a matchup with Jon Gray. Lefties tagged Gray for a .362 wOBA last season, compared to a .323 clip for righties.

The Dodgers have a slew of left-handed bats we can roster, but anyone in their lineup is fully in play. Cody Bellinger ($4,700), Corey Seager ($4,500) and Max Muncy ($4,200) lead the way as far as left-handed hitters, and they all sit in the top 10 of our projections. The salaries are prohibitive, but the ceiling is monstrous for each.

If you want to save some coin, Gavin Lux ($3,000) gets you lefty exposure to LA while righties A.J. Pollock ($3,300) and Will Smith ($3,200) won't break the bank. Smith is actually the top overall play among all hitters, according to our algo.

San Diego Padres

I've long been a fan of Caleb Smith. I have him on several dynasty teams. But we want to stack against him today. Smith is taking on the San Diego Padres, and it's a Padres team that finished last season with the third-highest hard-hit rate against lefties (37.6%). Smith can miss bats, but he also permitted a 39.1% hard-hit rate and 56.5% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters in 2019. San Diego's 4.93 implied total is the top non-Coors number.

Manny Machado ($4,000), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,300), Tommy Pham ($3,200) and Wil Myers ($3,300) are the money righties we want from the Padres. Pham, Tatis and Machado held down the first three spots in the order against a lefty on Opening Day while Myers hit fifth. Machado posted a .400 wOBA against left-handers in 2020 while Tatis (51.1% hard-hit rate and 46.7% fly-ball rate), Pham (.410 wOBA in a small sample) and Myers (.433 wOBA) all killed it in the split, as well. Pham and Myers are easy to love at their salaries and can go alongside Dodgers hitters.

Jurickson Profar ($2,200) is a cost effective way to get a piece of the Padres. He'll swing from the right side against Smith and is the second-best point-per-dollar stick on the slate.

Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox get to take on Alex Cobb. In 2020, Cobb mustered a mere 16.8% strikeout rate, which was actually his best strikeout rate since he had a 17.3% clip in 2017. Lefties amassed a .337 wOBA and 39.7% hard-hit rate against him last season while right-handed hitters had a 41.1% hard-hit rate. We have flexibility with a Pale Hose stack, and they own a 4.59 implied total.

Adam Eaton ($3,100), Yoan Moncada ($3,400) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,000) will have the platoon advantage. They hit second, fourth and sixth, respectively, versus a righty on Opening Day. Moncada mashed his way to a .391 wOBA in the split in 2019.

As for appealing righties, Tim Anderson ($3,500) was atop the order Thursday, and Jose Abreu ($4,000) manned his customary third slot. While it's usually not a great idea to allocate a lot of salary to someone hitting seventh, Luis Robert ($3,700) offers a rare power-speed combo, totaling 11 jacks and nine steals in only 227 plate appearances as a rookie last year.