3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 4/2/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Max Muncy to Hit a Home Run (+300)
Max Muncy is at Coors tonight against Antonio Senzatela, who mustered a mere 11.3% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters in 2020. Muncy, meanwhile, generated a 44.2% hard-hit rate and 43.2% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage a campaign ago. He had a .372 wOBA in the split in 2019.
The Los Angeles Dodgers' implied team total is getting silly, as it's up all the way to 7.15. Each of the five top hitters on tonight's MLB DFS slate are Dodgers, and the top-ranked dude is Muncy. This should be a bloodbath.
We project Muncy for 0.35 dingers tonight. That's the third-highest clip on the slate and the second-highest on LA -- yet this +300 line comes in longer than the tater odds for both Cody Bellinger (+260) and Will Smith (+270). Take the value and roll the dice on Muncy to put one in the seats.
Dallas Keuchel Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+130)
Getting punchouts is not how Dallas Keuchel makes his bread, but the combination of the super-low line and the +130 odds make this a good prop to target.
Keuchel had a 9.8% swinging-strike rate in 2020, which was his best clip since 2017. And the matchup against the Los Angeles Angels isn't great, but it's not bad, either. The Halos struck out 22.0% of the time against left-handed pitching last season, the 17th-most.
Keuchel had four-plus strikeouts in five of his last nine starts in 2020, and the Angels had only one game last season in which they struck out three or fewer times, though some of their punchouts in those games obviously came against relievers.
Four strikeouts is such a low bar to clear in today's game. Our algorithm has Keuchel getting 4.19 strikeouts tonight.
Blake Snell Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-128)
It's tough to project how long Blake Snell's leash will be in his first start with the San Diego Padres. Snell was notoriously kept to a tight pitch count with the Tampa Bay Rays, and he threw just 72 pitches in his final spring start.
Snell was ridiculous in the spring, failing to permit an earned run while fanning 13 in 14 1/3 frames. We know he has some of the best stuff in the game, recording strikeout rates above 31.0% in three consecutive seasons. So betting on the under on his strikeouts prop is mostly betting against Snell working deep into the game, something our model supports, as we project him to pitch only 4.9 innings today against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
We can also feel fairly good about Arizona's ability to put the ball in play. Against southpaws in 2020, the D-Backs posted a just a 21.0% strikeout rate, the seventh-lowest.
Our model has Snell forecasted for just 5.71 punchouts.
