MLB Betting: Bet the Under on These 3 Win Totals
We've already taken a look at some of the best overs to bet when it comes to 2021 MLB team win totals. So let's flip it and break down three win totals at MLB odds on which you should bet the under, according to our projections.
We will once again be referencing FanGraphs' WAR projections as well as Pythagorean record, the latter of which is a great tool to see how many wins a team should have had in 2020.
Here we go.
Detroit Tigers
Line: 67.5 Wins (Under -116)
Projection: 50 Wins
The Detroit Tigers may just be the worst team in baseball this year. After finishing last in the American League Central in 2019 with just 47 wins and a .292 win percentage, the Tigers improved in 2020 -- but to a mark of only 23 wins and a .397 win percentage, which put them in the AL Central basement once again. Their -69 run differential last season was the second-worst clip in the AL, while their Pythagorean win total had them at exactly the 23 wins they got.
Offensively, Detroit should be among the worst lineups. FanGraphs' WAR projections hand them the fourth-fewest offensive WAR. A one through four -- per their projected lineup -- of Robbie Grossman, Jeimer Candelario, Willi Castro, and Miguel Cabrera is pretty meh, at best.
On the mound, the future is bright thanks to young guns like Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Matt Manning, the latter of whom could debut in 2021. But it could be a rough 2021. FanGraphs has the Tigers' starting pitchers projected for only 9.3 WAR, the fourth-fewest. The bullpen shouldn't be much help, either, as they're projected for the fewest WAR from relievers.
This team should struggle in all facets. We have them with a nERD rating of -1.62, which means we think they would lose by 1.62 runs versus an average team on a neutral field. That's the worst nERD rating in the bigs.
There should be better days ahead in 2022 and beyond, especially if the Tigers' young pitchers deliver on their promise, but this should be another long year in the Motor City, as we project Detroit for only 50 wins.
Texas Rangers
Line: 67.5 Wins (Under -110)
Projection: 57 Wins
By run differential, the Texas Rangers were the worst team in baseball in 2020, finishing with a -88 clip. A -88 run differential in just 60 games? Yikes.
Texas should be every bit as bad in 2021.
FanGraphs projects the Rangers to have the worst offense in the MLB, forecasting Texas' bats for a cover-your-eyes 3.0 WAR, and that's with Joey Gallo projected for 2.1 WAR himself. So, yeah, not good.
The Rangers' pitching isn't quite as bad, but it's certainly not good, either. They'll need to find a way to replace the departed Lance Lynn, who both pitched well and ate a ton of innings. Kyle Gibson is slated to be the team's ace, and while that's underwhelming enough, there are volatile guys such as Kohei Arihara, Mike Foltynewicz, Dane Dunning and Jordan Lyles behind him. FanGraphs' WAR projections have Texas with the 10th-worst starting staff.
Not helping matters is a fairly stout AL West. Other than the Seattle Mariners, who we rank 25th, the rest of the division sits in our top 14.
We have Texas projected for 57 wins and rank them as the fourth-worst team. There's good value on the under at 67.5 victories.
Colorado Rockies
Line: 63.5 Wins (Under -110)
Projection: 50 Wins
The Colorado Rockies finished just three games out of a Wild Card spot last year, but they had a rough offseason. The biggest loss was obviously Nolan Arenado, who had been an offensive force for the Rox for years as well as an elite defensive third basemen. That trade signaled Colorado's intentions for 2021 -- read: rebuilding -- and this could be an ugly season for the Rockies.
While Colorado won 26 games a campaign ago, their Pythagorean win total of 23 suggests that they played worse than their actual record. Their 23 Pythagorean wins were tied for the fourth-fewest, so they were already a bad team before losing Arenado. And with Trevor Story in the last year of his deal, it wouldn't be a shock to see Story dealt mid-season.
At the plate, Story and Charlie Blackmon should produce. After that, it's not pretty. FanGraphs' WAR projections have the Rockies next to last in offensive WAR. On the bump, Colorado is fifth-worst in pitching WAR -- fifth-worst for starters and second to last for relievers.
There just aren't many positives here.
And we haven't even mentioned the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, two NL West foes who should be among the very best teams in the game and who Colorado will see a combined 38 times.
Our algorithm projects the Rockies to win only 50 games.
