MLB Betting Guide: World Series Game 1
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay +1.5 (-138): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The two teams that won the most games in the regular season are going to battle it out for the title, and Game 1 of the World Series pits Clayton Kershaw against Tyler Glasnow.
Oddsmakers have the Los Angeles Dodgers as a pretty sizable favorite tonight, putting LA at -174 on the moneyline. That implies win odds of 63.5%. Our model also has the Dodgers winning, but we think it's more of an even matchup than oddsmakers do, as we give the Dodgers win odds of 57.1%. That opens up betting value on the Tampa Bay Rays' side.
Kershaw was really good in 2020, finishing with a 3.22 SIERA across 58 1/2 frames. But he's not quite as dominant as he once was, and that has manifested itself in the amount of juicy contact he's allowed in recent campaigns.
Since the start of 2018, Kershaw has given up a 38.3% hard-hit rate over 398 innings, including a 41.9% hard-hit rate in 2019. From 2008 to 2017, Kershaw permitted a hard-hit rate of just 25.0%. As you'd guess, the recent uptick in hard-hit balls allowed has led to Kershaw surrendering more dingers -- culminating in a career-worst 1.42 homers per nine innings in 2020.
The Rays can take advantage of this. They ended the 2020 regular season with the third-most homers against left-handers, and they racked up the second-best hard-hit rate (38.4%) and sixth-best wOBA (.343) in the split.
And Glasnow is more than capable of quieting LA's potent lineup. Glasnow pitched to a 3.04 SIERA, 38.2% strikeout rate and 14.0% swinging-strike rate in 2020. For as good as LA's offense is, they've averaged just four runs per game over their last four, and the Rays' bullpen has been stellar all year long.
We have the Dodgers winning 4.13-3.68, and we forecast the Rays to cover 1.5 runs 60.41% of the time. That makes the Rays on the runline a one-star bet. We also have Tampa Bay on the moneyline (+150) as a one-star bet, as well.
