MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 10/8/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Under 9.0 (-106): 4-Star Rating out 5
There's a very good chance that neither Thompson nor Montgomery pitch all that deep into this game. We know Thompson is expected to be used as an opener, and the Yanks just deployed Deivi Garcia as a one-inning opener in Game 2, so Montgomery likely has a very short leash. With that said, the New York southpaw is a quality pitcher who finished the 2020 regular season with a 3.84 SIERA and fanned 24 across his final three starts, which covered 15 2/3 frames.
Still, we're going to see a lot of these bullpens unless Montgomery is dealing, and both 'pens are capable of putting up zeros.
Tampa Bay has an elite bullpen, one that ranked first in Fangraphs WAR in 2020 and gave up the second-fewest homers per nine innings (0.87). Both of these 'pens limited hard contact as the Yankees allowed the lowest hard-hit rate (28.5%) while the Rays surrendered the sixth-lowest hard-hit rate (29.8%).
Plus, in a win-or-go-home game for the Yankees, it wouldn't be surprising to see ace Gerrit Cole make a multi-inning relief appearance.
We project the Yankees to win 3.82-3.54 and see a total of 7.36 runs being scored. With the total set at 9.0, we have the under as a four-star bet, making it our clear best bet of the night as of Thursday morning, when we don't yet know who is starting on the bump for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros.