MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Monday 10/5/20

Kenyatta Storin  —  @KenyattaStorin Oct 5th, 2020
According to numberFire's algorithm, how should you bet today's MLB games?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics

Under 8.5 (-110): 3-Star Rating out 5

One bet stands out as the top value in numberFire's model, which is the under in today's first ALDS matchup between the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics.

This one pits Lance McCullers against Chris Bassitt, and it wouldn't be surprising if this turned into a lower-scoring affair.

McCullers posted solid regular-season numbers, which included a fantastic 59.7% ground-ball rate that ranked among the best in the league. He was also pretty dominant down the stretch, allowing no earned runs over his final three starts (17.2) with a 37.5% strikeout rate and 6.3% walk rate.

Bassitt doesn't have amazing overall marks, but he too finished the season on high note. He posted a 3.88 SIERA, 24.0% strikeout rate, and 4.8% walk rate over his final four regular season outings, and he excelled in his wild-card start against the White Sox, allowing just one earned run in 7.0 innings.

Neither active roster boasts an incredible offense in 2020, either. Against right-handed pitching, the Athletics ranked 13th in wRC+ this season, while the Astros ranked 16th.

Our algorithm gives the under a 64.0% chance of hitting, making it a three-star wager today.