MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/30/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Indians +1.5 (-152): 2-Star Rating out 5
Indians Moneyline (+112): 2-Star Rating out 5
Following yesterday's 12-3 beatdown at the hands of the New York Yankees -- and with Shane Bieber on the mound no less -- bettors probably won't be super enthused about siding with the Cleveland Indians, but numberFire's model sees value in the underdog tonight.
Cleveland should have the upper hand in tonight's starting pitcher matchup, with Carlos Carrasco going up against Masahiro Tanaka. Although Carrasco struggled with walks at times (9.6% rate), he still had a very successful bounce-back campaign, producing a 2.91 ERA with a 29.3% strikeout rate. A 3.91 SIERA suggests he wasn't quite as good as that sub-3.00 ERA, but that's still a solid mark nonetheless.
Tanaka didn't have a bad season by any means (3.56 ERA), but he posted a less imposing strikeout rate (22.3%) and was prone to the long ball (1.69 home runs per 9.0 innings). Dingers could particularly be an issue tonight, too, as Cleveland is expecting winds exceeding 20 mph blowing out to right field.
Carrasco probably won't be immune to those high winds against a strong Yankees lineup, but his swing-and-miss stuff is the perfect weapon to combat the conditions.
numberFire's model gives the Cleveland runline a 66.7% chance of success and the moneyline a 54.9% likelihood. Both rate as two-star values.
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
Brewers +1.5 (-108): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Brewers Moneyline (+198): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Betting against the top-seeded Los Angeles Dodgers might seem iffy, but the Milwaukee Brewers could be a sneaky value.
The Brewers are rolling with a bullpen game, and while that might normally seem like a bad thing in a playoff game, Milwaukee's relievers combined for a league-best 3.45 SIERA this season. Brent Suter (2.85 SIERA; 29.5% strikeout rate) is opening for Milwaukee, while Devin Williams (1.56; 53.0%) and Josh Hader (3.04; 39.7%) await on the backend.
Even for a top offense like the Dodgers, this could be a tougher test than it might initially appear.
Meanwhile, Walker Buehler takes the mound for Los Angeles, and while he still finished the regular season with a 3.80 SIERA and 28.6% strikeout rate, nagging blister problems led to some inconsistent results down the stretch. On paper, he should be able to handle a Brewers lineup that ranked just 26th against right-handed pitching, but Buehler was held to just 65, 61, and 71 pitches over his three September starts. A dominant outing is hardly guaranteed.
Our algorithm projects the Brewers runline hitting 61.1% of the time for a two-star rating. The moneyline only gets a 43.6% success rate, but the potential return also makes it a two-star wager.
