MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/29/20

Which bets does our model like for Tuesday's playoff action?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians

Indians Moneyline (-102): 1-Star Rating out 5

FanDuel Sportsbook has Game 1 between the New York Yankees' Gerrit Cole and the Cleveland Indians' Shane Bieber being very tight, listing New York at -112 on the moneyline and Cleveland at -102.

There are reasons to back Cleveland, and the most obvious reason is Bieber.

Bieber was the best pitcher in baseball this season, dominating to the tune of a 2.52 SIERA and 41.1% strikeout rate -- both of which paced all starters. While the Yanks (.341 wOBA) are a fearsome matchup, Bieber has done just fine against top-notch offenses. In 21 innings against the Minnesota Twins in 2020, Bieber allowed only five earned runs while punching out 43, and in 11 frames versus the Chicago White Sox, he permitted 3 earned runs and racked up 18 strikeouts.

Cole is awesome, too. Even in a bit of a down season, he finished with a 3.21 SIERA, 32.6% strikeout rate and 15.3% swinging-strike rate. He also gets a much easier matchup as the Indians had the fifth-worst wOBA (.303).

But our model gives Cleveland an ever-so-slight advantage in this one, projecting the Indians to win 3.46-3.28. We think Cleveland wins 54.2% of the time, and the -102 line implies win odds of 50.5%. On a night where we don't have even a two-star bet to recommend, we have to take value where we can get it.