MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/22/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Baltimore +1.5 (-198): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Baltimore Moneyline (-108): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Our algorithm likes the Baltimore Orioles tonight way more than oddsmakers do. The O's are a 1.5-run underdog versus the Boston Red Sox, but we have them winning 5.77-4.69, giving them win odds of 59.3% and making Baltimore on the runline and moneyline two of the night's better bets.
The pitching matchup is Boston's Nick Pivetta against the Orioles' Keegan Akin. The advantage here lies with Baltimore. Akin has been really good as a rookie, pitching to a 3.89 SIERA. While the sample size is only 18 2/3 innings, Akin had a nice minor league track record, boasting at least a 24.0% strikeout rate at every stop. Pivetta has lost a lot of the shine he once had. He's logged just 5 2/3 frames this season, and he ended 2019 with a 4.73 SIERA.
Normally the offensive edge in a Baltimore-Boston game would lean heavily toward the Red Sox, but that's not exactly the case this year. Boston (.331 wOBA) does have better numbers, but the O's (.319 wOBA) have been surprisingly solid.
We have the O's on the runline as a three-star play, projecting them to cover 1.5 runs 75.66% of the time, while Baltimore on the moneyline is a two-star bet.
Over 9.5 (-106): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Texas Moneyline (+130): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Texas +1.5 (-158): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Smith is a good pitcher who can get whiffs (career 25.9% strikeout rate), but Arizona has utilized him as an opener of sorts since acquiring him, allowing Smith to throw just 40 and 61 pitches in two starts. With the D-Backs playing out the string, they have no reason to push Smith today. Lyles, meanwhile, is not good and carries an ugly 5.79 SIERA into this outing.
That should sell you on the over, which we see hitting 62.24% of the time as we project a total of 11.19 runs to be scored in this one.
And despite Texas being a 1.5-run 'dog, we have them winning 5.83-5.36. We give the Rangers win odds of 52.8%, and we have them covering 1.5 runs 70.07% of the time.