MLB Betting Guide: Friday 9/18/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 8.5 (-115): 2-Star Rating out of 5
We've got Tyler Glasnow squaring off with Alex Cobb Friday night at Camden Yards, and our model likes the over in this one. We expect the Tampa Bay Rays to do the heavy lifting as we project Tampa Bay to win 5.40-4.09, giving us nearly a full run of value on the 8.5-run line.
Tampa has one of baseball's better all-around offenses as they sit in the top 10 in wOBA (.331) and hard-hit rate (36.3%). Cobb, meanwhile, is allowing a 40.9% hard-hit rate while striking out only 16.6% of hitters. He should struggle tonight, and after him, the Rays will get to take their hacks against a Baltimore Orioles 'pen that has the 11th-worst SIERA (4.37).
Glasnow is fantastic. He's got a 37.4% strikeout rate and 14.1% swinging-strike rate. But something we can cling to here is that when he gives up contact, it's of the juicy variety as he sports a 40.8% hard-hit rate. That's led to 1.55 dingers per nine innings, and the O's have shown good pop this year with the 10th-most homers (52) against righties.
We peg the over as a two-star bet and expect it to hit 58.4% of the time.
Mariners +1.5 (-104): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Mariners Moneyline (+152): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Under 8.5 (-105): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Led by the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers and Manny Machado, San Diego can mash against lefties like Kikuchi. But the Seattle southpaw has been one of baseball's most improved pitchers this season, and he owns a 3.78 SIERA, 26.2% strikeout rate and 11.9% swinging-strike rate. He's also limiting bad contact with a 34.3% hard-hit rate and 51.5% ground-ball rate. Our model has him throwing well tonight, projecting him to allow 2.02 earned runs across roughly 5 2/3 frames.
The Padres are giving the ball to Chris Paddack. Paddack has more or less repeated most of his numbers from his superb 2019 rookie campaign, carrying a 3.72 SIERA and 25.4% strikeout rate into this matchup. He does, however, allow a 43.0% hard-hit rate, which was a bugaboo for him last year, too, when he gave up a 42.1% hard-hit rate.
All in all, our model really likes Seattle in this one. A 1.5-run underdog, Seattle is projected to lose 3.93-3.76, per our algorithm. We give Seattle a 62.2% chance to cover, making that our lone three-star bet of the slate. But we also have Seattle on the moneyline and the under as two-star bets.