MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/17/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Over 7.5 (-115): 4-Star Rating out of 5
Mets Moneyline (+108): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Aaron Nola and Seth Lugo get the starting nods tonight in this matchup. Nola has been outstanding this season, but our algorithm thinks the 7.5-run total is way too low. We project 9.75 runs to be scored in this game -- 5.08-4.67 in favor of the New York Mets -- and we peg the over as a four-star play, forecasting it to hit 68.0% of the time.
There's really not many holes we can poke in Nola's 2020 numbers. Dude has been stellar with a 2.80 SIERA and 35.5% strikeout rate. He is, however, facing a Mets offense that has been fantastic against right-handers, sporting the second-best wOBA (.357) in the split, and the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen has allowed a league-worst 2.13 taters per nine innings.
A reliever for about half of the campaign, Lugo has made only four starts this season, generating an impressive 25 punchouts in 17 innings across those four outings. But he hasn't gone deeper than 5 1/3 innings in any start, so the Mets' bullpen will be a big factor today, and it's a pretty league-average unit by most metrics.
Since we have the underdog Mets winning 52.1% of the time, you could opt to take New York on the moneyline (+108), but our top bet of the night is the over.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Dodgers Moneyline (-164): 2-Star Rating out of 5
At -164 on the moneyline, the Los Angeles Dodgers are clear favorites tonight at Coors against the Colorado Rockies. But our model says they're not a big enough favorite, as we give LA a 69.3% chance to win while the -164 line implies odds of 62.1%
The Dodgers will face lefty Kyle Freeland. The southpaw does a good job limiting bad contact via his 52.6% ground-ball rate, but he gives up plenty of contact in general, striking out just 16.1% of hitters this season. If you can't get whiffs at Coors, it'll eventually catch up to you.
And this Dodgers offense can do some damage against lefties (or anyone). In 2020, they own the top hard-hit rate in the split (44.0%) along with the sixth-highest fly-ball rate (37.9%).
The Dodgers will send Julio Urias to the bump. He has a 21.0% strikeout rate and 10.7% swinging-strike rate so far this campaign, and while those are solid numbers, he showed more in a larger sample in 2019 with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 13.7% swinging-strike rate.
We project LA to win by a score of 7.19-5.09, and there's value in taking the Dodgers on the moneyline.
