MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/16/20

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

Over 8.5 (-122): 3-Star Rating out of 5

Gerrit Cole may be pitching tonight, but as we saw last night, the New York Yankees are still an offense capable of hitting an over pretty much on their own.

Of course, we don't need another 20-run performance to get there tonight, and less than have that will do just fine against Tanner Roark.

Roark is having a poor 2020 campaign, posting a 5.44 SIERA, 19.4% strikeout rate, and 11.9% walk rate over 8 starts. However, is his home run issues that really make him vulnerable to a rough outing at Yankee Stadium, as he's giving up 2.55 homers per 9.0 innings. Roark's Statcast page suggests this trend isn't a fluke, and this will also be his second straight start against the Bronx Bombers, so they'll be quite familiar with his stuff in round two.

Our model likes the over hitting 65.06% of the time, making this a three-star betting value.

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

Over 8.5 (-118): 3-Star Rating out of 5

We're not exactly getting a battle of elite offenses between the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers, but it's not like we've got a pair of aces going on the mound, either.

Brady Singer and Tarik Skubal have a combined 14 starts of Major League experience, and both prospects have endured the natural growing pains of facing the world's best. Neither pitcher played above Double-A in 2019.

Singer is coming off a strong start against Cleveland, but his overall numbers have been mediocre, with a 4.41 SIERA, 21.8% strikeout rate, and 8.4% walk rate over 9 starts.

Meanwhile, Skubal just got roughed up by the Cardinals and now sits on a 5.04 SIERA, 22.7% strikeout rate, and 10.7% walk rate over his 5 outings.

The future could be bright for these young hurlers, but in the present, we should be surprised if either our both struggle tonight, and all we need is something like a 5-4 score to cash. numberFire's model projects the over succeeding at a 64.54% rate for a three-star wager.