MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/15/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Detroit Moneyline (-110): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Detroit +1.5 (-176): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Over 8.5 (-124): 2-Star Rating out of 5
This is the place to go tonight for betting value, per our algorithm. We identify only four two-star bets for tonight across the entire 15-game MLB slate, and three of them are in this game.
All in all, our model likes the Tigers and is expecting runs as Matt Boyd faces Jake Junis. Neither hurler is all that good -- hence the over recommendation -- but Boyd is definitely the better of the two. The Tigers' southpaw is in the midst of a down campaign, but his 4.27 SIERA and 13.1% swinging-strike rate are way better than Junis' 5.03 SIERA and 9.9% swinging-strike rate.
We peg Detroit to win 57.5% of the time while the -110 moneyline implies 52.4% win odds. With KC at -104 on the moneyline, FanDuel Sportsbook views this as close to a coin-flip. We have the Tigers winning 5.29-4.80.
The runline also stands out. Detroit is -175 to cover as 1.5-run 'dogs. That implies odds of 63.6%, while we have the Tigers covering 69.1% of the time.
As for the total, we see 10.09 runs being scored while the line is at 8.5.
The over and Tigers moneyline are the best bang-for-your-buck bets of the night going by our numbers.
Oakland Moneyline (-160): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Sean Manaea and Antonio Senzatela tangle tonight at Coors. For the most part, our model lines up with what oddsmakers are forecasting, but we think the moneyline is selling the Oakland Athletics just a tad short.
We have Oakland winning 67.4% of the time, but the -160 moneyline implies win odds of 61.5%. While that's nothing to get crazy excited about, betting value is betting value.
It's easy to get behind the Athletics' offense today as Senzatela is striking out only 14.8% of the hitters he's faced in 2020. Giving up that much contact at Coors isn't a recipe for success. Manaea isn't a ton better, but his 19.8% strikeout rate and 52.3% ground-ball rate give him a fighting chance.
Our algorithm has Oakland winning this game by nearly two runs -- 7.03-5.13.