MLB Betting Guide: Monday 9/14/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles
Orioles +1.5 (-108): 3-Star Rating out of 5
It's no surprise to see the Atlanta Braves as favorites against the Baltimore Orioles, particularly with the Orioles starting Jorge Lopez tonight. Atlanta has been one of the top offenses against righties in 2020 -- their active roster ranks second in wRC+ (131) -- while Lopez owns a wretched 6.34 ERA since the start of last season. Although Lopez's ERA estimators might normally suggest improvement, he's routinely performed worse than them over his career with a 5.95 ERA compared to a 4.67 SIERA.
That may not bode well for the Orioles, except their bats should be able to put up some runs tonight, too. Touki Toussaint returns from a demotion to Atlanta's alternate training site after struggling mightily with a 7.89 ERA through six appearances (four starts) earlier this season.
Toussaint has a stellar 27.5% strikeout rate, but it's come at the cost of a 12.8% walk rate and poor batted-ball numbers in his Statcast data. His 12.5% barrel rate has led to giving up 5 dingers in just 21.2 innings of work.
Baltimore may not have the talent of Atlanta's sluggers, but they've held their own with a 105 wRC+ versus righties.
numberFire's model projects the Baltimore runline succeeding 62.38% of the time for a three-star betting value.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox
Over 9.5 (-104): 1-Star Rating out of 5
In a battle of top offenses between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox, the over looks like the way to go in this one. The Twins hold a 111 wRC+ against righties in 2020, and the White Sox are right behind them at 110.
Jose Berrios could provide some trouble for Chicago, but he's hardly untouchable, with a 4.33 SIERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, and 10.8% walk rate. The strikeout rate will surely get him some easy outs, but the White Sox could make him pay if the walks get out of hand. This will also be the third time Chicago faces Berrios this year, including an outing just a couple starts ago, so they're quite familiar with him at this point.
Meanwhile, Minnesota gets a juicy matchup against Dylan Cease, who has an ugly 5.72 SIERA in 2020, exposing a fraudulent 3.33 ERA. He has lackluster marks in both strikeout rate (15.4%) and walk rate (10.3%), and his Statcast page is ugly.
Our algorithm projects the over hitting 54.37% of the time for a one-star wager.
