MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/10/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Under 7.5 (-128)
This is a rare case where the pick doesn't actually follow our algorithm, but that's because it doesn't know about the weather in Chicago.
Cool temperatures and strong winds blowing in have helped keep the runs down the past couple nights in Wrigley Field, leading to just three total runs in each of the past two games. While yesterday had the makings of a pitching duel as is between Yu Darvish and Trevor Bauer, the game before that featured Tyler Mahle and Alec Mills -- not exactly a pair of aces.
As of this writing, 14 MPH winds are expected to be blowing in at Wrigley, and when coupled with temperatures in the 60s, starters Sonny Gray and Adbert Alzolay should have the advantage against opposing hitters.
Gray got shelled in his last outing, so he was given extra rest to prepare him for tonight's start. While that might not seem ideal, the team says he's completely healthy, and he's otherwise been excellent in 2020 with a 3.70 SIERA and 31.6% strikeout rate over eight starts.
Alzolay could be a little shakier, as he has just 21.0 innings of big league experience, but he's shown promise this season with a 31.6% strikeout rate over 8.2 innings.
He struggled with walks in his most recent start, but if he can keep things under control this time around, he could see a healthy number of strikeouts against a Reds squad that's striking out 25.5% of the time against righties. Alzolay had a 32.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A last season, so the punchouts may not be entirely a fluke.
Seven-and-a-half runs is a low bar, which does add some risk here, but the weather conditions should suppress any big innings, and both starters could excel tonight.
Over 9.5 (-120): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Bumgarner was already showing signs of decline the last few years, but he's pretty much fallen off a cliff in 2020. While it's been only five starts (with an injured list stint in the middle), he's taken steps back in SIERA (6.02), strikeout rate (15.0%), and walk rate (9.0%). He's coughed up 9 home runs over just 21.1 innings, which is no surprise considering his egregious 19.4% barrel rate allowed.
None of that is going to fly against a tough Dodgers lineup.
Dustin May is having a good season (2.88 ERA), but his 4.49 SIERA isn't that imposing. The D-backs may be a weak offense, but they've kept things close in this series and should be able to get a few runs across, too.
numberFire's model sees the over hitting 56.54% of the time for a one-star bet.