MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/9/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres
Padres Moneyline (-178): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Colorado Rockies have lost the first two games of this road series against the San Diego Padres, and there's little reason to think it won't happen again with Antonio Senzatela taking the mound.
Senzatela has a 3.33 ERA, and the positives include a 3.5% walk rate and a 50.0% ground-ball rate, but a 4.52 SIERA suggests he's performing over his head. His strikeout rate remains low as usual (15.7%), and that's not what you want to see against a powerful Padres offense that leads all active rosters with a 137 wRC+ versus righties.
The Rockies' bats have also been terrible away from Coors -- no surprise there -- with their 73 road wRC+ ranking higher than only the Pirates and Diamondbacks. Padres starter Zach Davies is enjoying one of the better seasons of his career, so he shouldn't have too much trouble handling this sorry lot.
numberFire's algorithm projects San Diego winning this nearly 70% of the time, making the moneyline a two-star bet.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 9.0 (-115): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been one of the top offenses of 2020, so Diamondbacks starter Taylor Clarke isn't a likely candidate to hold them back.
Clarke has found some success in a 2.96 ERA this season, but this looks to be a classic case of BABIP-driven luck, with a mere .194 mark explaining the gap between his ERA and 4.65 SIERA.
His 23.9% strikeout rate is also curious because it doesn't match up with a ho-hum 8.2% swinging-strike rate. In fact, he had a higher swinging-strike rate last season and only managed an 18.4% strikeout rate.
It wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see the Dodgers raise that ERA tonight.
Clayton Kershaw is having a phenomenal year, which does throw a wrench in taking the over. But with the Dodgers' bats on the path towards a big night, we may only need a modest contribution from the D-backs to reach 10 total runs.
numberFire's model sees the under hitting just 36.38% of the time, making the over a solid two-star wager.
