MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/8/20

According to numberFire's model, which bets stand out on Tuesday's MLB slate?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers

Tigers +1.5 (-126): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Tigers Moneyline (+132): 3-Star Rating out of 5

numberFire's model sees value in siding with the Detroit Tigers against the Milwaukee Brewers. Both teams have shaky righties taking the mound in Spencer Turnbull and Adrian Houser.

The Tigers and Brewers have both struggled at the plate this season, but Detroit may actually have the edge versus right-handers. Their active roster owns a 92 wRC+ in the split, while Milwaukee remains one of the league's worst at 76.

Detroit gets a solid matchup against Houser, who's only managed a 16.2% strikeout rate over seven starts. Houser does have an annoying 64.2% ground-ball rate, but the Tigers shouldn't have any trouble making contact, and this will also be Houser's second straight start against them. The Tigers scored five earned runs in five innings the last time.

The wild card in this matchup will Turnbull, who's really struggling with walks and will also be facing the same team in back-to-back starts. Despite the free passes, he's been effectively wild for the most part (3.89 ERA) and has avoided big innings with a low barrel rate.

Our model projects the Tigers runline hitting 66.36% of the time and the moneyline succeeding at a 54.58% clip. Both check in as three-star bets.

Seattle Mariners at San Francisco Giants

Giants -1.5 (+124): 1-Star Rating out of 5

The San Francisco Giants should have the upper hand against the Seattle Mariners tonight, taking on Ljay Newsome in just his second MLB start (third appearance).

Newsome has performed pretty well in first two appearances -- against the Padres and Dodgers no less -- but he's also already given up two home runs over just seven innings. Those two outings and two Triple-A starts represent his entire career experience above Double-A, showing just how green he still is.

In 2019, he had nine starts in Double-A and produced modest peripheral numbers in a 4.24 xFIP and 18.5% strikeout rate.

San Francisco should be well-positioned to take advantage of the inexperienced righty, with their active roster boasting a 115 wRC+ in the split -- on the league's best marks.

On the other side, the Mariners' bats are roughly league average at best and take on a similarly average pitcher in Logan Webb.

numberFire's algorithm gives the Giants runline about a 50% chance of success for a one-star wager. The moneyline doesn't give as much bang for your buck (-174) but sees that percentage jump up to 66.89% for another one-star rating.