MLB Betting Guide: Friday 9/4/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Over 9.0 (-120): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals both have young starters taking the mound tonight, so taking the over an appealing way to go.
Brady Singer has seven starts under his belt for the Royals, and he's been a mixed bag at best with a 5.19 ERA. There isn't much to suggest a major turnaround is coming, as his underlying numbers are mediocre between a 4.58 SIERA, 21.1% strikeout rate, and 9.5% walk rate. Against a strong offense like the White Sox, that's probably not going to get the job done.
On the other hand, right-hander Dane Dunning is off to a scorching hot start for Chicago, rattling off 14 strikeouts over his first 9.1 innings of MLB action (two starts). That obviously isn't a great sign for a subpar Royals lineup, but this will actually be Dunning's second straight start against Kansas City, so they'll be more familiar with his arsenal this time around.
And for as great as Dunning has been so far, this will be just his third appearance above Double-A, and he missed all of last season following Tommy John surgery. The early returns have been outstanding, but we're also talking about a super tiny sample size.
numberFire' model projects the under hitting just 36.03% of the time, making the over a two-star wager.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Giants Moneyline (-132): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The San Francisco Giants have been a big surprise at the plate in 2020, and their active roster actually ranks sixth in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching (112).
That could make things tough on right-hander Taylor Clarke, who gets the ball for the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. Although Clarke is sporting a 2.22 ERA, his SIERA is over two runs higher (4.28) and his .130 BABIP is totally unsustainable. He also sometimes struggles to find the plate, with a worrisome 12.6% walk rate.
Meanwhile, the D-backs have been the total opposite of the Giants, entering the evening as one of the league's worst offenses. They've scuffled against pitchers of either handedness, but they're really floundered against southpaws, ranking dead last in wRC+ (59).
However, Giants starter Tyler Anderson hasn't had a great year, and this will be his third start in a row against Arizona. He's the wild card here, as he pitched a complete game win in the first matchup, but was lit up for seven earned runs in the rematch. The good news is the complete game came at home, where Anderson's been far more effective this season.
Overall, numberFire's algorithm projects a Giants win 62.91% of the time for a two-star bet.
