MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/3/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Blue Jays -1.5 (+112): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Blue Jays Moneyline (-132): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Boston Red Sox are coming off a sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves as their pitching staff continues to be a total liability in a lost 2020 season.
The Toronto Blue Jays are next up for the Red Sox and have a great chance to add to their misery.
Boston starter Martin Perez has an improved 4.58 ERA -- at least by his standards -- but his peripheral numbers are actually worse this season. He owns a 5.49% SIERA, 16.3% strikeout rate, and 10.2% walk rate, which are all downgrades from 2019.
The Blue Jays are well-suited to take advantage of the southpaw, too, with most of their lineup batting right-handed.
As for Toronto's pitcher, Taijuan Walker is probably lucky to have his 3.27 ERA -- he has a mediocre 4.65 SIERA -- but he's avoided some of that damage through a lack of hard contact. The Red Sox have also floundered against right-handed pitching this year, with their active roster owning a mere 80 wRC+ in the split.
numberFire's algorithm projects the Blue Jays runline hitting roughly 50% of the time for a one-star wager. If you want a higher win probability, the moneyline gets the same rating at a 60.91% likelihood.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Royals +1.5 (-126): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Chicago White Sox have been one of the most dangerous teams against left-handers this season, so it's no surprise to see them favored over Danny Duffy and the Kansas City Royals tonight.
However, Duffy has actually performed quite well in 2020, sporting a 3.79 SIERA, 27.8% strikeout rate, and 6.9% walk rate over seven starts. In his last outing, he held the White Sox to 3 earned runs (4 total) over 5.2 innings, so he wasn't far off from posting a quality start.
Furthermore, Chicago has Dylan Cease getting the nod, who has had a difficult time finding the plate. Cease has posted an 11.8% walk rate, and he issued a whopping six free passes in his last start, which happened to also come against Kansas City. He also has an ugly 5.59 SIERA, one of the worst of today's starters.
Our model projects the Royals covering 63.14% of the time for a two-star bet.
