MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/2/20

After being sidelined with a shoulder injury, Charlie Morton will be making his first start since early August. How should you bet his matchup against the Yankees?

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.

For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Over 9.0 (-102): 2-Star Rating out of 5

Normally, picking the over with Tampa Bay's Charlie Morton on the mound would feel risky, but Morton has been on the shelf for the last three weeks with shoulder inflammation and wasn't performing very well before the injury.

Across four starts, Morton posted a 5.40 ERA, and while a 4.27 SIERA suggests he deserved better than that, his strikeout rate was way down at 22.1%. Most concerning of all was a noticeable drop in velocity, which was likely a key culprit for his pedestrian results. There's no question that Morton is fantastic when healthy, but that's a big if right now.

On the other side, we have Jordan Montgomery pitching for the New York Yankees, who has performed fairly well after missing most of the last two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. However, with a modest 20.0% strikeout rate, this also isn't a shy-away matchup for the Rays.

At the plate, we're also dealing with two above-average offenses, as the Yankees' active roster has a 114 wRC+ this season, while the Rays also check in at 114.

Combining for 10 or more runs is well within the probable range of outcomes, with numberFire's model projecting the under hitting just 33.93% of the time.

Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox

Braves Moneyline (-160): 1-Star Rating out of 5

Siding with the Atlanta Braves almost feels like a no-brainer tonight as they go for the sweep against the Boston Red Sox.

Boston has made a late change at pitcher, now opting for Robinson Leyer as their starter, who will be making just his second big league outing. Chances are he will be used as an opener, though, so we shouldn't be surprised if original starter Mike Kickham is the bulk reliever behind him, which was Boston's original plan.

The 31-year-old Kickham would be making his first MLB appearance since September of 2014, giving him nearly six years between appearances. And there's a very good reason for that, as what little MLB experience he does have hasn't gone terribly well -- he owns a 10.98 ERA across 30.1 career innings. Kickham last played for the Marlins organization, recording a 5.24 xFIP over 86.1 innings in Triple-A last season.

As for Leyer, he's shown strikeout upside in the minors but has also consistently produced double-digit walk rates. In his MLB debut, he allowed an earned run in one inning of work.

And regardless of who Boston throws out there, the advantage will almost certainly go to the Braves. Boston's pitching staff has a league-worst 6.16 ERA in 2020.

Atlanta starter Robbie Erlin hasn't been anything special this year, but if things go as expected for the Braves' bats, he won't need to be perfect to get his team the win.

numberFire's model projects the Braves winning 61.13% of the time for a one-star bet.