MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/26/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Rays -1.5 (+112): 1-Star Rating out of 5
It seems like right when everyone was talking about the Baltimore Orioles as this year's feel-good story, they dropped right back down to earth, and now the Orioles sit one game below .500.
The Tampa Bay Rays are in a good spot to pick up another win on Baltimore versus Asher Wojciechowski, who struggles mightily with home runs. Wojciechowski has already given up 6 round-trippers over 22.1 innings, and over his career, he's coughed up a rate of 1.91 per 9 innings.
The Rays have been a strong offense against right-handers, too, with an active roster boasting a 113 wRC+ in the split.
Tampa Bay starter Trevor Richards hasn't been effective this year, but the Orioles have only been about league average versus righties (101 wRC+). Richards will also be followed by a solid Rays bullpen that owns the 5th-best xFIP and 10th-best SIERA among active rosters.
numberFire's model projects the Rays covering a hair under 50% of the time, but still sees the runline as a one-star value.
Giants +1.5 (+114): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The San Francisco Giants have been a real surprise on offense this year, owning the league's sixth-best wRC+ among active rosters (116), and much of their success has come against left-handed pitching (142 wRC+).
Obviously they won't remain that good against southpaws over the long haul, they're also first in hard-hit rate (52.2%), seventh in strikeout rate (19.8%), and sixth in walk rate (11.1%). It sure looks like some of that success has been well-deserved.
They draw a difficult matchup against Clayton Kershaw, but this all suggests they won't necessarily be dead in the water tonight.
Similarly, Kevin Gausman wouldn't necessarily be your first choice to squash a mighty Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, but he's also showing some nice skills underneath a mediocre 4.65 ERA. Gausman owns a cool 3.06 SIERA, 31.6% strikeout rate, and 4.5% walk rate, and the punchouts are backed by a 14.8% swinging-strike rate.
Oracle Park isn't suppressing runs like it used to, so Gausman's 36.9% ground-ball rate and 44.0% hard-hit rate could get him in some trouble, but there's still a lot to like here.
Siding against Kershaw and the Dodgers may seem counterintuitive, but the numbers say there's value in the underdog. numberFire projects a San Francisco runline bet cashing 56.93% of the time for a two-star rating.