MLB
Can the Orioles Afford to Lose Nelson Cruz?
Nelson Cruz is going to be a free agent after the season, a process that should be fascinating to watch.

Anyone could have signed @ncboomstick23, corner pocket. For the win. #Postseason http://t.co/XojjQvmTYl

— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) October 5, 2014

Cruz' two-run home run in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Tigers in Detroit gave Baltimore all the runs they would need in their series-clinching 2-1 victory. In the brief three-game series Cruz went 6-for-12 with 2 homers, 5 RBI and 4 runs scored, helping lead the Orioles to their unlikely sweep of the Tigers. As a result, the O's will now play in their first American League Championship Series since 1997.

Obviously there's still more work to do for the Orioles. But had they not signed Cruz, it's unlikely they would be in a position for their first trip to the World Series since winning it all in 1983.

Nelson Cruz' free agency is going to be one of the more fascinating cases this season. Cruz led all Major Leaguers in homers this year with 40, was 4th in RBI with 108, his isolated power (ISO) of .254 was 7th, his .525 slugging percentage was 8th and his nERD of 2.20 - meaning a lineup full of Cruzes would have generated 2.20 more runs a game than a league average player - was 24th-best.

He will undoubtedly be the best pure power hitter on the MLB free agent market this off-season (not counting Cuban slugger Yasmany Tomas).

Of course, there are reasons teams will once again stay away. The Orioles will likely extend Cruz a qualifying offer, meaning any team without a top-10 protected draft pick will have to surrender their first-rounder in order to sign him. He's also going to be 34 years old in 2015, and given his outstanding 2014 season, will likely be looking for at least a three-year deal, if not more.

In addition, Cruz' defense in the outfield leaves a lot to be desired, ranked 60th out of 76 qualified Major Leaguers in total defense, as calculated by FanGraphs. He's more of a designated hitter than an everyday outfielder, which will limit his likely suitors to American League teams.

Of all the teams in baseball, the O's have the least incentive to offer him a long-term deal. As I mentioned above, they can simply make him a qualifying offer, and if he takes it, he's theirs for another year. But if he doesn't, the Orioles will receive another team's first-round pick (or a second rounder if the acquiring team's first-rounder is protected) and still have Adam Jones (who hit 29 home runs this season), Steve Pearce (21), Chris Davis (26) and Nick Markakis (14), as well as the returning Manny Machado, Matt Wieters, and Jonathan Schoop. All of them have the potential to provide above average power from their respective positions.

Virtually every team in the Majors is craving power hitting outfielders. For teams that may just be a hitter or two away, the risks on the back end of a multi-year deal, as well as giving up a first round pick, may just be worth the price of chasing a world championship.

Certainly, Baltimore doesn't mind that trade right now, just four wins away from their first World Series appearance in 17 years.

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