MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/25/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
Over 8.5 (-118): 2-Star Rating out of 5
The Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers failed to hit the over on Monday, but we have a worse duo of starters going tonight in Sean Manaea and Kyle Gibson.
Manaea comes in with a 3.98 SIERA and has suffered from a .359 BABIP, so he probably deserves much better than his 6.39 ERA. That being said, his 20.2% strikeout rate is mediocre at best, and he hasn't had a particularly difficult schedule against teams like the Diamondbacks, Angels, and Mariners. The Rangers aren't anything special against lefties, either, but they plated 4 runs in 3.1 innings against Manaea earlier this month.
Gibson's 4.72 ERA is roughly the same as 2019, but his underlying numbers have taken a sizable step back, including a mere 16.5% strikeout rate and 7.8% swinging-strike rate. After making strides in punchouts the last couple seasons, he's gone away from throwing his breaking balls as much, and it's hard to love the results. The Athletics are an above-average offense that's certainly capable of taking advantage.
Between two suspect pitchers, these two teams combining for nine-plus runs isn't a stretch, and our model gives it a 59.54% chance of hitting.
Chicago Cubs at Detroit Tigers
Cubs Moneyline (-126): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Spencer Turnbull has shown promise at times and does have a 3.65 ERA through five starts, but his peripherals haven't backed it up. He has a lackluster 5.34 SIERA, 19.8% strikeout rate, and 14.1% walk rate, and over his last two starts, he's issued 8 walks in just 6.2 innings. The Chicago Cubs have a 110 wRC+ against righties this season, so those walks will come back to bite Turnbull if he's off yet again.
Cubs starter Tyler Chatwood should also be able to contain the Detroit Tigers. Chatwood is making his first start since going on the injured list, so he probably won't log too many innings, but he had a stellar 2.91 SIERA, 35.4% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate over his first 15.0 innings. Although it's worth noting that Chatwood got lit up in one of his three starts, the Tigers are a poor offense against right-handers, owning a 77 wRC+ and 30.3% strikeout rate.
numberFire's algorithm gives the Cubs moneyline a 55.77% likelihood for a one-star wager.
