MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/19/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Marlins +1.5 (+112): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Betting against Jacob deGrom isn't a wise move very often, but numberFire's model sees value in siding with the Miami Marlins tonight.
Pablo Lopez is starting for Miami, and he's been fantastic through three starts, posting a 3.12 SIERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, and 6.0% walk rate. That may look like a fluke following a poor 2019 campaign, but his punchouts are backed by a 17.0% swinging-strike rate and a rise in changeup usage.
The Marlins have also been a surprise on offense this year, with their active roster sporting a solid 108 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching.
Both Lopez and Miami's bats may be performing a bit over their heads, but it's still apparent that this won't necessarily be a cupcake matchup for deGrom and the New York Mets.
Our algorithm sees the Marlins runline as a two-star wager with a 57.39% chance of success. And if you're really feeling bold, the Miami moneyline (+196) gives you good bang for your buck as another two-star bet.
Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies
Astros Moneyline (-144): 2-Star Rating out of 5
We should have a mismatch at Coors Field tonight between the Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies, with the Astros having the superior starting pitcher. Framber Valdez boasts a 25.5% strikeout rate and 57.1% ground-ball rate this season, which should help him combat the scary environs of Coors.
On the other hand, the Rockies are putting their trust in Ryan Castellani, who is making just his third big league start. Although his first two starts went well, we shouldn't be fooled by his recent success. Some luck was involved (.059 BABIP; 100% strand rate), and Castellani's minor league track record leaves a lot to be desired. In 2019, he posted a 6.26 xFIP in Triple-A, and the year before that, he mustered a 5.14 xFIP in Double-A.
The Astros haven't been an offensive juggernaut in 2020, but this remains a talented lineup that should be able to take advantage of such an advantageous matchup. Our model sees the Astros moneyline as a two-star bet with a 63.85% likelihood of hitting.
