MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/18/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Under 9.5 (-120): 2-Star Rating out of 5
No one would fault Gonzales for giving up some runs against a vaunted Dodgers offense, but his 4.42 SIERA over four starts isn't egregious, and an 18.5% strikeout rate paired with a 3.3% walk rate gives him a respectable strikeout-minus-walk rate. He's done a good job of minimizing home runs the past couple seasons by allowing a low rate of barrels, and his 28.6% Statcast hard-hit rate (batted balls hit 95 mph or higher) is a promising sign.
Gonsolin only has two starts under his belt this season, but he's yet to allow a run yet and racked up 8 strikeouts in 4.2 innings against the Padres last week. He posted pedestrian peripherals over 40.0 innings last season, so expectations should be tempered, but the Mariners' active roster owns a 90 wRC+ and 25.2% strikeout rate versus righties dating back to last season.
numberFire's model sees the under hitting 63.34% of the time, which is a two-star bet tonight.
Over 9.0 (-102): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Skubal put up some tantalizing numbers in Double-A last season, recording a 1.27 xFIP with an eye-popping 48.2% strikeout rate and 21.5% swinging-strike rate. However, he also issued a 10.6% walk rate, and he's never pitched above Double-A in his career. There's no doubt that Skubal is an exciting prospect, but it also wouldn't be surprising to see him struggle facing big league hitters for the first time -- particularly against a White Sox active roster that boasts a 123 wRC+ versus lefties since the start of 2019.
Furthermore, even if he does perform well, he's only expected to throw around 50 pitches, so the White Sox will get plenty of opportunities against middle relief pitching.
Meanwhile, Cease comes in with a 3.26 ERA, but a 5.08 SIERA and 16.9% strikeout rate are rather uninspiring. He's already allowed 5 home runs in 19.1 innings, and he struggled with the long ball over 14 starts in 2019, too.
Nine runs isn't a huge hurdle with two young pitchers on the mound, and our model likes the over as a three-star wager.