MLB Betting Guide: Friday 8/14/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Rangers Moneyline (-122): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Lynn has struggled with walks this season (13.3% rate), but he's overcome that blemish with a stellar 33.3% strikeout rate. Some luck has played into his 1.16 ERA (.174 BABIP and 99.0% strand rate), but he's still sporting a solid 3.94 SIERA and isn't giving up a ton of hard contact. Coming off an excellent 2019 campaign, we should have full confidence in Lynn continuing to find success on the mound.
Ryan Castellani will oppose Lynn, and he's making just his second MLB start. Castellani managed to throw four scoreless innings in his debut, but that was on the road in Seattle, so this will be his first taste of Coors Field. He did little to impress in Triple-A last season, producing a 6.26 xFIP, 21.8% strikeout rate, and 13.9% walk rate over 10 starts.
It's hard to see Castellani outdueling Lynn tonight, and numberFire's model agrees, giving the Texas moneyline a 61.25% chance of success.
Padres -1.5 (+124): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Padres Moneyline (-124): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Lamet has put up a promising 3.48 SIERA, 31.1% strikeout rate, and 7.8% walk rate through four starts, which is more or less in line with his peripherals in 2019. He faced these same Arizona Diamondbacks in his last start and had no problem dispatching them, racking up 11 strikeouts over 6.2 innings with just 1 earned run.
On the other side, Kelly has done his part for the D-backs, but he hasn't shown the same strikeout prowess as Lamet, recording a 19.7% strikeout rate through three outings. While he isn't issuing many free passes (1.3%), the lack of swing-and-miss stuff could eventually come back to bite him, as his Statcast batted-ball data isn't pretty. Projection systems on FanGraphs see him as a pitcher with an ERA hovering near 5.00 over the long haul.
To top it all off, Kelly faces a Padres lineup that's been off to a great start. Against right-handed pitching, San Diego's active roster ranks ninth in wRC+ this year (111).
numberFire's model gives the San Diego runline a 50.64% chance of hitting and the moneyline a 61.68% success rate. If you think the Padres can really get to Kelly tonight, over 8.5 runs (-122) is another two-star wager with a 60.0% likelihood.