MLB Betting Guide: Friday 8/7/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 9.5 (-104): 2-Star Rating out of 5
We realllllly liked this bet when the line was at 9.0 this morning, but it has since moved up half a run. We're still into it, however, as we project the Minnesota Twins-Kansas City Royals game to have a total of 10.5 runs scored.
We have the Twins carrying the load in terms of getting this game to hit the over. Up against Jake Junis, we have Minnesota scoring 5.7 runs. Junis allowed a 42.6% hard-hit rate over 175 1/3 innings last season, and lefties got to him for a .352 wOBA. With lefties like Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco, Minnesota should feast today.
The Royals should fare well at the plate, too, as they're up against Devin Smeltzer, who has surrendered a 43.0% hard-hit rate and 40.7% fly-ball rate over 53 2/3 career innings. This KC offense has been a little better than expected so far, sporting a not-awful .307 wOBA while popping the 14th-most dingers.
Back the offenses in this one, and we project the over to hit 56.5% of the time.
Rangers Moneyline (+136): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Rangers +1.5 (-116): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Our model identifies only two three-star bets today, and the Texas Rangers are at the center of both of them. Texas is a 1.5-run 'dog at home against the Los Angeles Angels, and the Rangers sit at +136 on the moneyline.
But our model like Texas a lot more than oddsmakers do. Not only do we give the Rangers a 66.0% chance to cover the runline, but we also have them winning straight up 54.2% of the time -- projecting Texas to win 4.89-4.71.
The pitching matchup is Griffin Canning against Jordan Lyles. Lyles ended 2019 with a 4.53 SIERA and 24.4% strikeout rate. Canning, meanwhile, has a solid 4.27 SIERA and 25.2% strikeout rate across 101 career frames. So advantage LA, right? Not so fast.
Canning's issue is the type of contact he gives up. He's allowed hitters to post a 41.2% hard-hit rate and 44.5% fly-ball rate against him in his career, and that led to him giving up 1.39 jacks per nine innings as a rookie last campaign. We project Canning to give up 3.0 runs in 5.2 innings today.
Depending on how you want to do it, you can take Texas to win or cover. We mark both as 3-star bets.