MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/4/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers Moneyline (-128): 2-Star Rating out of 5
It's a night of limited value, so we're going to have to take value where we can get it. Our model doesn't identify any three-star bets today, but this is one of three two-star bets (as of Tuesday morning).
The Milwaukee Brewers are -128 to beat the Chicago White Sox today at Miller Park, which implies win odds of 56.1%. Our model likes Milwaukee a little more than that, giving the Brew Crew a 63.8% chance to win.
Milwaukee has Brandon Woodruff going while the White Sox turn to Lucas Giolito. It's a matchup of aces, but our projections really like Woodruff today as we have him going 6.1 innings and giving up 1.8 runs while fanning 7.5. We see Giolito allowing 3.2 runs over 5.5 innings.
Like I said, it's a night without any really good spots for betting value, so we'll take the value we can get.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs
Cubs Moneyline (-194): 2-Star Rating out of 5
This is just like yesterday, when our model identified a favored Chicago Cubs squad as a not-big-enough favorite.
The Cubs are -194 to win at Wrigley versus the Kansas City Royals, implying win odds of 66.0%. We have the Cubbies winning 72.6% of the time. It's certainly a lopsided matchup on paper -- our nERD-based power rankings put Chicago 2nd and Kansas City 28th. We project the Cubs to win by a touch more than two runs, 5.77-3.72.
The Cubs are 52-35 at home since the start of 2019, per Killer Sports, and they're 5-1 at Wrigley so far this season. On top of that, Kyle Hendricks is on the bump for the Cubs while Brady Singer is up for KC. Our projections give a big edge to Hendricks in this matchup as we rank Singer at the bottom of the barrel among today's starting hurlers.
Take the slight value with the Cubs moneyline.
