MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 7/29/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Washington -1.5 (+102): 2-Star out of 5 Rating
Although Scherzer allowed 4 earned runs and issued 4 walks over 5.1 innings in his 2020 debut against the Yankees, he racked up a whopping 11 punchouts and was very unlucky on balls in play with a .500 BABIP. He also threw 98 pitches, so unlike a lot of pitchers in the early going, there are no workload concerns here. He should have a much easier time getting the job done against a young Blue Jays lineup.
The Nats' bats should be able to put up some runs against top prospect Nate Pearson, too, who's making his MLB debut. Although Pearson likely has a bright future ahead of him -- he posted a 3.12 xFIP, 28.3% strikeout rate, and 8.6% walk rate in 16 Double-A starts last year -- he's short on experience with just three Triple-A starts under his belt, and only managed a 21.7% strikeout rate in those appearances. Even if he proves to be up to the task, it's a tall order to ask him to outduel Scherzer and clamp down the defending champs.
Our model sides with Washington at -1.5 runs, with the Nats covering 57.94% of the time.
Want yet two more two-star bets? You're not getting as much value on the moneyline (-164), but numberFire's model gives that a strong 68.48% chance of hitting. It also picks over 8.5 runs (-110) coming through 59.12% of the time.
Under 10.0 (-115): 2-Star Rating out of 5
While they may be short on MLB reps -- May is making his sixth big league start -- this is a fairly high total for two talented arms. May posted a 3.79 SIERA, 22.7% strikeout rate, and 3.5% walk rate across 34.2 innings in 2019, and he was solid as a last-second starter in place of Clayton Kershaw last week, allowing 1 earned run in 4.1 innings against the Giants.
Meanwhile, Javier has shown a ton of firepower in the minors, rattling off a 39.0% strikeout rate across 74.0 Double-A innings and showing similar punch in two Triple-A starts. He's also shown a double-digit walk rate throughout his rise through the ranks, so that could get him into trouble, but the upside is abundantly clear if he's on his game.
Neither pitcher is likely to pitch deep into the game, but this will be a high run tally to overcome in the late innings if they pitch to their abilities.