MLB Betting Guide: Monday 7/27/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Under 10.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Although Dylan Cease and Aaron Civale isn't exactly a duel of household names, but there's a path to the under hitting tonight. Despite a lackluster rookie season, Cease is a former top prospect who showed quite a bit of promise in the minors, and he still managed a 24.9% strikeout rate over 14 MLB starts. A double-digit walk rate held him back last year, but it isn't unreasonable to think he can take a step forward if he keeps missing bats at a high clip.
Meanwhile, Civale actually posted a squeaky clean 2.34 ERA in 10 starts last season, but ERA estimators all say he was lucky to get there. Still, he was effective at every step of the minors, and he did an excellent job of avoiding barrels, so perhaps he ERA wasn't entirely made up of smoke and mirrors.
Between two potentially underrated starters, our model likes the under as a three-star wager. And if you think Cease's control issues get the best of him, numberFire also gives the Cleveland moneyline (-136) a three-star rating, too.
Boston +1.5 (-146): 2-Star Rating out of 5
We're probably going to see a fair number of runs scored in tonight's New York Mets-Boston Red Sox contest, as the Mets are rolling out Michael Wacha, while the Red Sox are opting for an opener/follower combo of Josh Osich and Zack Godley.
I'm not expecting Osich and Godley to hold the Mets off the board by any means, but the Red Sox should be able to keep things close against Wacha. The right-hander posted a lackluster 5.08 SIERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, and 9.8% walk rate last year, leading to one of the worst campaigns of his career. His Statcast numbers left a lot to be desired, too, perhaps suggesting that the 1.85 home runs per 9 innings he allowed weren't entirely a fluke.
Even without Mookie Betts, this is still a solid Boston lineup, and their active roster actually posted second-lowest strikeout rate versus right-handers in 2019. numberFire's model likes siding with Boston +1.5 for a two-star bet. If you're feeling especially confident about the Red Sox, we also give the moneyline (+100) a two-star rating.