MLB Betting Guide: Friday 7/24/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for today.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 10.0 (-104): 3-Star Rating out of 5
numberFire's model digs the over in this matchup of AL East foes, and it's easy to see why.
The Boston Red Sox are in a great spot to score runs against Baltimore starter Tommy Milone, who is arguably one of the worst starters on the slate. Over the past four campaigns, Milone has posted a 5.67 ERA while allowing 2.1 home runs per 9 innings. A poor Orioles bullpen only further adds to the possibility of a Red Sox rout.
But that doesn't mean the Orioles won't tack on some runs of their own. Nathan Eovaldi has shown flashes of excellence (2018), but yet another injury-marred season held him to 67.2 innings in 2019, and the result was perhaps the worst year of his career. Maybe Eovaldi rekindles some of that 2018 magic over the long run, but we shouldn't be surprised if he gives up some runs in this opening start.
Along the same lines, our model also likes taking the Orioles at +1.5 (+104) under the assumption they keep things close. That rates as another three-star bet.
Rangers Moneyline (-104): 3-Star Rating out of 5
Siding against the Colorado Rockies when they're away from Coors Field usually isn't a bad idea, and they open on the road against the Texas Rangers. In 2019, only the Miami Marlins posted a worse wRC+ on the road than the Rockies.
And while this could be a tight pitching matchup between German Marquez and Lance Lynn, Marquez should have a short leash, as he isn't expected to go much beyond 75 pitches tonight. Meanwhile, Lynn is coming off a strong campaign where he put up a 3.83 SIERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, and 6.7% walk rate over 33 starts. Perhaps those punchouts come down, but if Lynn is anything like last year, it could be lights out for the road-tripping Rockies.
numberFire's model gives this wager a strong three-star rating.
Over 8.5 (-120): 2-Star Rating out of 5
However, there isn't any value in taking the Astros at -300, so you could instead root for a blowout by picking the over on 8.5 runs.
Verlander obviously won't help matters on that front, but the good news is he only logged 74 pitches in his final tuneup, so even if he's dialed in, we don't need to worry about him ruining things by pitching a complete-game shutout. Chances are he only goes five or six innings, and he did allow a 45.2% fly-ball rate and 41.8% hard-hit rate in 2019, so Seattle may still muster a solo shot or two.
As for Gonzales, the southpaw posted modest strikeout numbers against lefties and righties alike last year, so this deep Astros lineup could be in for a field day. numberFire's model tags this as a two-star wager.