MLB Futures: Bet on the Milwaukee Brewers to Make the Playoffs
With the MLB season right around the corner, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a slew of bets, including team and player props.
One of the team props that caught my eye was the Milwaukee Brewers to make the playoffs -- which is listed at +205 for Milwaukee to make the postseason and -260 for them to miss it. And playing in the Wild Card game counts as making the playoffs, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
I think there's good value here.
The National League Central should be a really fun and wild race over this 60-game sprint. The odds reflect how tight this division is as every team in the NL Central not named the Pittsburgh Pirates is sitting between +230 and +350 to win the division. Milwaukee is at +350, the worst odds outside of the Pirates, but that seems a little off.
Not only does our model rank Milwaukee as the best team in the NL Central -- though the Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds aren't far behind -- FanGraphs projects the Brewers and Cubs to win 32 games apiece, one more than the Reds and Cards. So, yeah, this division is going to be tight.
Our projections also have Milwaukee with 32 wins, tied for the fourth-most in the NL, but we have the Cardinals getting 33 victories.
Given what we just said, Milwaukee at +350 to win the NL Central is pretty appealing in its own right, but I prefer taking the Brewers at +205 to make the postseason.
A +205 line implies odds of 32.5%. Our model hands the Brewers a 43.9% chance to make the playoffs, and Fangraphs gives the Brew Crew a 41.9% chance to make the playoffs. That's a fairly sizeable gap, and it's one we should be willing to pounce on.
One of six teams in the top 12 in both fewest runs allowed per game and most runs scored per game, according to Fangraphs' 2020 projections, the Brewers offer some nice betting value right now, particularly with their playoffs prop.