Most of the 2014 season has been a lost cause for Detroit starter nERD totals show he's done a decent job at saving his team runs, at least compared to a league average pitcher. His nERD of 1.94 this year is 17th-best among all MLB pitchers - meaning he's given up 1.94 runs a 27-out game less than an average Major Leaguer. That's not far off the 2.28 he put up last year, as well as the 2.74 nERD he's averaged every season since 2006.
His last two games have Tigers fans excited. However, it should be noted that his fastball velocity in his last two contests was exactly what it's been all season, and he didn't vary his pitch selection a whole lot either. It's possible he simply had two decent outings against a weak-hitting Royals team and a White Sox club that has long been out of the pennant race.
And his second half hasn't come without its bumps and bruises, either. He gave up seven runs (six earned) in an outing against Cleveland at the beginning of the month, and has given up four runs or more in four of his last eight outings. So it's important not to get too excited about two great starts in a row.
But it at least seems as though Verlander has nosed ahead of Porcello over the last month.
| Name | W | L | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | fWAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Price | 2 | 3 | 6 | 39.2 | 5.22 | 2.20 | 1.4 |
| Justin Verlander | 4 | 1 | 6 | 41.2 | 3.46 | 2.65 | 1.2 |
| Max Scherzer | 3 | 1 | 6 | 39.1 | 3.43 | 3.00 | 0.9 |
| Rick Porcello | 0 | 4 | 5 | 27.2 | 4.88 | 2.84 | 0.7 |
In the last 30 days, Verlander has been the superior pitcher, besting him in fWAR (1.2-0.7), FIP (2.65-2.84) and ERA (3.46-4.88). Given Verlander's track record, he's more likely to shut a team down on any given day than Porcello, which is why he should probably be given the Game 3 start in the ALDS, no matter who the Tigers end up playing.
The old Justin Verlander may be gone forever. Hopefully, the Tigers can get a reasonable facsimile as they look for their elusive first World Series title since 1984.