MLB
Who Should Win the American League Cy Young Award?
The race for AL Cy Young is down to two pitchers, and it's a virtual coin flip.

It shouldn't come as a shock that Seattle Mariners' ace nERD figure for both players indicate Kluber has saved his team more runs this season than Hernandez. Kluber's nERD of 2.28 means he would have saved his team 2.28 runs a game more than a league-average pitcher over a 27-out game, slightly better than King Felix's 2.19 nERD. In terms of FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), Kluber betters Hernandez 7.0-to-6.0, and in Baseball Reference's Wins Above Replacement (bWAR), Kluber is also on top, 6.9-to-6.4.

These are three very important metrics which take into account ERA, Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), walks, strikeouts, home runs, and virtually every other important pitching statistic. However, it's still beneficial to look at the counting stats as well, to see for ourselves how each pitcher stacks up.

The Counting Stats

Kluber has piled up more strikeouts than Hernandez, 258-to-241 (David Price leads all AL pitchers with 263) and has a better strikeouts-per-nine innings (K/9) total, too (10.2-to-9.4). However, Hernandez has been a touch stingier with the walks, giving up just 1.79 walks-per-nine (BB/9), compared to 1.94 for Kluber. And Hernandez' ERA of 2.34 is better than Kluber's 2.53 (Chicago's Chris Sale leads that category at 2.17).

In terms of batting average against, Hernandez has allowed opponents to hit just .201 against him this year, trailing only Los Angeles' Garrett Richards (.200) in that category. Kluber is 12th in the AL in batting average against, at .233. Hernandez also has a better WHIP than Kluber (0.94-to-1.10), although Kluber has given up fewer home runs per nine innings (HR/9), 0.55-to-0.62.

Pressure Situations

Here is how both pitchers have done in High Leverage Situations (for example, how did a pitcher perform with a one-run lead in the later innings, as opposed to a one-run lead in the early innings) and with runners in scoring position (RISP).

NameHL AVGHL OBPHL SLGHL wOBARISP AVGRISP OBPRISP SLGRISO wOBA
Kluber.246.276.339.265.205.276.287.250
Hernandez.220.290.370.281.182.246.262.227

Again, there doesn't seem to be a clear winner here. According to weighted on base average (wOBA), Corey Kluber has been a bit better in "high leverage" situations (.265-to-.281), while Hernandez has been stingier with runners in scoring position (.227-to-.250).

The Verdict

Until this week, King Felix probably had the lead in this race. That was until he gave up eight earned runs on seven hits, three walks and five strikeouts in just 4.2 innings on Tuesday against the Toronto Blue Jays. Heading into that game, his ERA stood at 2.07, and he led Kluber in both bWAR and ERA. Meanwhile, Kluber was just named AL Pitcher of the Week for last week, after going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 28 strikeouts in two starts.

Since most of the counting and high leverage stats are pretty much even between the two, we're left at the three main metrics for judging pitchers to make our decision. And in terms of nERD, fWAR and bWAR, it seems clear that Kluber has a slightly better case for the AL Cy Young Award than Hernandez.

Of course, it's possible both pitchers will make one more start this week, with one last chance for each to nose ahead of the other.

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