MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/29/20 on FanDuel
Real-life MLB DFS will be back in our lives at the end of July, so in the meantime, why not get some reps in with FanDuel's simulated contests?
MLB Sim Sports is a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for the early slate. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
Note: Jordan Montgomery threw just two innings as a starter in 2020 (four total), so his numbers are not listed.
| Pitcher | Salary | Opp. | SIERA | K% | BB% | Opp. K% | Opp. wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (R) | $10,000 | LAA | 3.54 | 30.4% | 7.2% | 20.3 % | 109 |
| Zac Gallen (R) | $8,700 | @PHI | 4.24 | 28.7% | 10.8% | 24.5 % | 90 |
| Jordan Montgomery (L) | $7,600 | @BAL | -- | -- | -- | 21.0 % | 98 |
| Marco Gonzales (L) | $6,800 | @BOS | 5.08 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 19.7 % | 112 |
| Vince Velasquez (R) | $6,600 | ARI | 4.42 | 24.6% | 7.9% | 21.8 % | 96 |
| Derek Holland (L) | $6,500 | COL | 5.16 | 25.0% | 14.3% | 24.1 % | 98 |
| Antonio Senzatela (R) | $6,400 | @PIT | 5.50 | 13.1% | 9.8% | 20.1 % | 94 |
| Patrick Sandoval (L) | $6,200 | @TAM | 4.89 | 22.8% | 11.4% | 27.1 % | 99 |
| Kohl Stewart (R) | $6,000 | NYY | 6.33 | 5.8% | 9.6% | 23.4 % | 119 |
| Ryan Weber (R) | $5,800 | SEA | 5.16 | 13.2% | 3.8% | 25.9 % | 88 |
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on the slate.
Pitchers
Charlie Morton ($10,000) and Zac Gallen ($8,700) are the clear standouts up top. Morton boasts the slate's best overall numbers but gets a tough draw versus the Angels. Gallen produced a concerning walk rate in 2019 but should possess a nice punchout upside in an easier spot against the Phillies.
It's tough to love anyone else on the smaller slate, but Vince Velasquez ($6,600) occasionally has his moments off a solid 24.6% strikeout rate and has a neutral matchup against the Diamondbacks
Stacks
Lefty Marco Gonzales brings his lackluster strikeout rate to Fenway, setting up a potential big night for the Boston Red Sox. Boston performed admirably against southpaws in 2019, with J.D. Martinez ($3,600) doing some of his best work in the split as usual. Xander Bogaerts ($2,900) and Michael Chavis ($2,500) are top-notch values, and Rafael Devers ($3,600) is still firmly in play despite the lefty-lefty spot.
The New York Yankees figure to be popular in an obvious plus matchup against Kohl Stewart, who was dreadful over two 2019 starts and wasn't much better out of the bullpen. The end result was an ugly 6.39 ERA across 25.1 innings, and public projections peg him for an ERA well over 5.00 again, per FanGraphs. The first six batters in the Yankees' order are all strong options, with Gary Sanchez ($3,000) being the cheapest of that group.
The Pittsburgh Pirates aren't exactly a star-studded squad, but on the lighter slate, you can look their way against the likes of Antonio Senzatela. The right-hander recorded a mere 3.3% strikeout-minus-walk rate in 2019 and projects for another poor campaign. Gregory Polanco ($2,900) brings solid power-speed upside at a bargain price point.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.
