MLB Sim Sports Picks for 6/26/20 on FanDuel
Real-life MLB DFS will be back in our lives at the end of July, so in the meantime, why not get some reps in with FanDuel's simulated contests?
MLB Sim Sports is a free-to-play format that simulates the baseball games that were originally scheduled for play each day. Starting pitchers and batting orders are announced in advance, and then games will play out through numberFire's custom simulator.
Starting pitchers will have a simulated pitch count that we won't know beforehand but should be roughly based on their performance last season. Hitters will play the whole game, so there's no fear of pinch hitters and the like.
Best of all, the simulation is meant to replicate real life, so all the usual things you typically analyze in MLB DFS -- player skills, matchups, park factors, and platoon splits -- are in play here, so you can approach this in much the same way you would on a real baseball slate.
Below are the starting pitchers for tonight's slate, which locks at 8:06 pm ET. Stats are from 2019 and limited to just games started, so you may see slight changes in the overall numbers of some players who made appearances out of the bullpen. Opposing strikeout rate and wRC+ are last year's numbers against a given pitcher's handedness using updated active rosters, per FanGraphs.
Note: Josh James only threw one inning as a starter, so his numbers aren't listed.
|Pitcher||Salary||Opp.||SIERA||K%||BB%||Opp. K%||Opp. wRC+|
|Shane Bieber (R)||$12,000||@KAN||3.36||30.2%||4.7%||22.1 %||93|
|Walker Buehler (R)||$11,700||@SFG||3.50||29.2%||5.0%||24.0 %||89|
|Tyler Glasnow (R)||$9,600||SEA||3.18||33.0%||6.1%||25.9 %||88|
|Frankie Montas (R)||$8,800||@CWS||3.76||26.1%||5.8%||25.6 %||107|
|Lance Lynn (R)||$8,400||@HOU||3.83||28.1%||6.7%||16.3 %||129|
|Josh Lindblom (R)||$8,100||PIT||--||--||--||20.1 %||94|
|Marcus Stroman (R)||$8,000||@SDP||4.41||20.5%||7.5%||25.0 %||88|
|Mike Foltynewicz (R)||$7,800||@MIA||4.71||21.4%||7.5%||24.4 %||95|
|German Marquez (R)||$7,600||@MIN||3.85||24.3%||4.9%||20.9 %||119|
|Chris Archer (R)||$7,200||@MIL||4.38||27.2%||10.5%||22.8 %||102|
|Sandy Alcantara (R)||$7,100||ATL||5.28||18.0%||9.7%||22.4 %||100|
|Kenta Maeda (R)||$6,900||COL||4.22||26.2%||8.4%||22.5 %||86|
|Josh James (R)||$6,800||TEX||--||--||--||25.5 %||89|
|Justus Sheffield (L)||$6,500||@TAM||4.57||22.1%||9.1%||27.1 %||99|
|Jeff Samardzija (R)||$6,300||LOS||4.92||18.9%||6.6%||20.2 %||122|
|Nathan Eovaldi (R)||$6,200||STL||5.33||21.6%||12.9%||23.6 %||94|
|Dakota Hudson (R)||$6,000||@BOS||5.06||18.0%||11.3%||19.9 %||105|
|Reynaldo Lopez (R)||$5,900||OAK||4.88||20.9%||8.0%||22.8 %||109|
|Brad Keller (R)||$5,700||CLE||5.23||17.2%||9.9%||22.1 %||96|
|Zach Davies (R)||$5,500||NYM||5.43||15.2%||7.6%||21.5 %||109|
To help get you started, let's go through some of the top pitchers and stacks on the slate.
Shane Bieber ($12,000), Walker Buehler ($11,700), and Tyler Glasnow ($9,600) are the cream of the crop tonight, with all three drawing favorable matchups. Buehler is arguably the top overall choice against the Giants at Oracle Park, but Glasnow comes at a nice discount at home versus the Mariners.
If you want to pay down, Mike Foltynewicz ($7,800) is in a plus spot versus Miami. Foltynewicz came crashing down to earth following his breakout 2018 campaign, but the Marlins strike out at a high clip, and Marlins Park will help keep runs off the board.
Dakota Hudson may have posted a 3.35 ERA last year, but it wasn't backed up by any of his peripherals, so models project him to take a major step back this year. While his high ground-ball rate might be a hindrance to the home run ball, the Boston Red Sox are still poised to rack up the runs. This a pretty easy lineup to stack, too, with Rafael Devers ($3,500) being the most expensive bat. J.D. Martinez ($2,900) is dirt cheap out of the cleanup spot.
The Oakland Athletics should also be under consideration against Reynaldo Lopez. Unlike Hudson, Lopez gives up boatloads of fly balls, and dingers were very much an issue, coughing up 1.71 per 9 innings in 2019. The Athletics have the personnel to capitalize between Matt Olson ($3,700), Khris Davis ($3,400), and Matt Chapman ($3,200).
The Twins have a loaded lineup, and while Marquez is a solid arm, he didn't possess the same shutdown firepower in 2019 as he did the year prior, as his strikeout rate dropped from 28.1% to 24.3%. Projections see him as being roughly the same, with an ERA in the mid-4.00s, so it isn't inconceivable to imagine a strong simulated night for the Twins. If nothing else, Nelson Cruz ($3,200) and Miguel Sano ($3,300) are intriguing one-offs at these salaries.
The author of this article has no involvement with the MLB Sim Sports simulations powered by numberFire and has no knowledge of the results of tonight’s contest.